Making Top Four a Tall Order for Tottenham Hotspur

Without fans in the stands to help pay for the stadium, Champions League football is a near necessity for Tottenham Hotspur with an enormous stadium loan to pay. Unfortunately, following another loss stemming more from mistakes and poor play, Tottenham Hotspur have a nearly impossible mountain to climb to make top four. Despite having more than a third of the season to play, making the top four seems quite unlikely for Tottenham, who barely have a punchers chance.

Statistically Tottenham are Still Alive for Top Four

The analytics say Tottenham still have a chance at top four, even if only slightly better than Lloyd Christmas had with Mary Swanson. Actually, according to fivethirtyeight.com Tottenham still have a 12% chance at making top four. While on the surface 12% sounds more like Danny Williams  facing Mike Tyson than Frank Bruno, the reality is that 12% is a combination of things making it kind of misleading.

Spurs actually have a 7% chance of finishing fourth, a 4% chance of finishing third, and amazingly a 1% chance of finishing second. Combined, that is the 12% and is not so hopeful. When you stop and realize Spurs really only have a 7% chance of finishing fourth, the reality of the situation comes crashing down. So while statistically Tottenham still have a chance, those are long odds with just too many obstacles between Spurs and a top four finish.

There are too many teams fighting Spurs for the same spots

At this point in a what is clearly a Premier League season unlike any other, with the exception of Manchester City running away with things, the top four is up grabs. So we can crown City and know we are really talking about three spots. At this point Tottenham are in ninth place meaning seven teams are front of Spurs including four before those precious top four places.

Two of those four teams, Aston Villa – ahead of Spurs on goal differential – and Everton – a point in front of Spurs – both have a game in hand on Tottenham. Villa and Everton are the two teams just ahead of Tottenham and arch rival Arsenal is hot on Spurs heels following their victory over Leeds United.

With nine teams within 12 points of each other from second through 10th, there are just a ton of teams all fighting for the same pot of gold. Tottenham are 10 points out of third and depending on Chelsea and West Ham could be six points out of fourth before they travel to face the Hammers Sunday afternoon.

Tottenham need to start earning points at a remarkable rate

Ultimately, Tottenham are going to have to turn things around in a big hurry if they have any chance of making top four, and from a points perspective, even now that seems unlikely. According to fivethirtyeight.com Leicester City is going to take the fourth spot in the Premier League and the final birth in next season’s Champions League.

The website has Leicester City finishing with 68 total points just one point in front of fifth place Chelsea. With this in mind, we can say 68 points, should be enough for Spurs to finish top four. Tottenham currently have 36 points through 23 matches, earning a quite unremarkable 1.56 points per match.

To get to 68 points, Spurs will have get 32 points from their remaining Premier League matches, which is 2.13 points per match. For a point of comparison, currently on the season only 1 team has earned at least 2.13 points per match, Manchester City. At 2.30 points per match, City could actually have a bit of a dip and still get the points Spurs need.

However, not one other team is even averaging 2 points per match on the season, with both Manchester United and Leicester City averaging 1.91 points per match. What this means is that Tottenham will have to play at a level for the last 15 matches of the season that only Manchester City has up to this point in the season. While not impossible, it is certainly a tall order, particularly given the lack of form and lack of confidence within the squad.

Not impossible but awfully tough for Spurs

Tottenham have nearly 40% of their schedule left, making the situation not completely impossible. 8 of the 15 games are against teams in the bottom half. However, that means 7 are against teams currently in the top half and above Spurs in the table. If Tottenham can run the table in those 8 matches, that gives Spurs 24 more points, putting them at 60.

Even if Spurs drew all seven remaining matches, that leaves Tottenham at 67 points and in theory one out of the top four. This means Tottenham have to beat all of the bottom half teams and some of the top half teams, and hopefully not drop too many points along the way. At this point, anything more than 13 points dropped the rest of the way and Spurs finish below 68 and likely on the outside of the top four looking in.

This is not an impossible task for Tottenham at this point, but it is going to take a remarkable run, similar to the one Manchester City have been on since Spurs last beat them. Given the last team to beat Tottenham was Manchester City, maybe is Spurs turn to make that run and salvage a season that once had a lot of hope and now leaves fans clinging to slivers of a percentage and a brighter tomorrow.