Tottenham head into the final Premier League game with a lingering chance of relegation. They are 17th in the table, and West Ham, who occupy the final relegation spot, can still reach them.
There are three different outcomes for Tottenham: win, lose, or draw. The same can be said for West Ham. In total, there are nine different scenarios, and we will run through the outcome of each in this article.
Tottenham can secure Premier League safety this weekend
The one way that Tottenham can absolutely guarantee their own safety is by beating Everton.
If Tottenham win against Everton, regardless of the score, Tottenham stay up and West Ham go down.
If Tottenham draw or win against Everton and West Ham lose or draw to Leeds, Tottenham stay up and West Ham go down.
Six scenarios that guarantee Tottenham's Premier League safety
Tottenham Result | West Ham Result | Tottenham outcome |
|---|---|---|
Win | Win | Safe ✅ |
Win | Draw | Safe ✅ |
Win | Loss | Safe ✅ |
Draw | Draw | Safe ✅ |
Draw | Loss | Safe ✅ |
Loss | Draw | Safe ✅ |
Loss | Loss | Safe ✅ |
The results that leave Tottenham still at risk
The important thing is that Tottenham have a much better goal difference than West Ham. If Tottenham and West Ham were level on points, there's a high likelihood that Tottenham would advance due to their goal difference being better by 12.
If Tottenham draw but West Ham win, this is the only outcome that would lead to goal difference. Mathematically speaking, Tottenham would still be at 'risk', despite their large goal difference advantage.
Tottenham result | West Ham result | Tottenham outcome |
|---|---|---|
Draw | Win | Decided by goal difference |
Loss | Win | Relegated ❌ |
Breaking down all nine possible outcomes
If Tottenham win against Everton, their points tally increases to 41. There is no tangible way that West Ham could match that points tally, meaning Tottenham will stay up and West Ham will be relegated.
If Tottenham draw against Everton, their points tally increases to 39. In this scenario, a West Ham loss or draw would still render Tottenham as safe, however, West Ham winning would send the decision to goal difference as they would match Tottenham's 39 points.
If Tottenham lose against West Ham, they would be mathematically safe if West Ham were to lose or draw. This is because West Ham would need two points (so, only a win) to catch Tottenham's 38 points.
Why Tottenham’s relegation battle became this complicated
Tottenham had three different full-time managers during this season. Thomas Frank was stubborn, Igor Tudor was not cut out for the Premier League, and Roberto De Zerbi finally got it right.
Injuries certainly haven't helped, but it's far from an excuse. The sole reason why Tottenham are in this mess is because of the players. Top teams face injuries and managerial instability and still ride the wave, but Tottenham players didn't.
What happens next if Spurs fail to secure safety
Tottenham being relegated would be catastrophic and it would have a seismic impact on English football. They would lose a significant amount of revenue from just being in the Premier League, but they would also miss out on key revenue-driving fixtures such as facing Chelsea or Arsenal.
Many players would pack their bags and leave, making it harder than most would think to climb back up the English pyramid.
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