Tottenham has a chance to show why they are title favorites

Coming off of consecutive wins, Tottenham Hotspur has an opportunity on Thursday in the Netherlands to show why they are the favorites to win the UEFA Europa Conference League.

Tottenham are title favorites?

After the rough three-match losing streak the small odds Spurs had of winning the Premier League went out the window. In fact, according to fivethirtyeight.com, Tottenham is more likely to get relegated, with a 1% chance, than to win the league with a less than 1% chance.

Spurs still have a puncher’s chance of making the top four with a 19% chance of qualifying for the Champions League but the title is really a three-horse raise according to the analytics. Manchester City (52%), Liverpool (30%), and Chelsea (14%) account for 96% of the odds of winning the league, leaving just 2% for Manchester United and less than 1% for every other team in the league.

While facing long odds in the Premier League, Tottenham is actually the co-favorites – along with Jose Mourinho’s Roma – to win the inaugural Conference League, with a 14% chance of winning the final according to fivethirtyeight.com.

What is interesting about the numbers in looking at the projections is that Tottenham is not the primary favorite to reach any stage of the competition, except to win the final. With Rennes in their Group – the third strongest team in the competition according to the analytics – Tottenham only has a 58% chance of winning their group, yet they still have a 57% chance of making the quarterfinals.

Roma is heavily favored throughout the competition and currently sports an 85% chance of winning their group and a 99% chance of making the knockout phase. Spurs are the fourth most likely to make the knockout round with a 90% chance. From their Tottenham just go up, as the third most likely team to make the round of 16 and the second most likely team – behind Roma -to make the quarters, semifinals, and finals.

Of course, Spurs need to play the games the odds guarantee nothing, which brings us to the opportunity on Thursday.

Tottenham need to make a statement against Vitesse

The 5-1 win over MS Mura was kind of a statement game for Spurs, however, Mura is widely regarded as the weakest team in Group G making the win a bit less impressive. While Thursday’s opponent  Vitesse is not Rennes good they are not Mura bad either.

Both of the next two matches in the Conference League are against Vitesse -who currently sit 5th in the Dutch Eredivisie.  After a rough start to the season conceding five goals at Ajax and four goals at home to FC Twente, Vitesse has started to get their act together.

Vitesse has been solid defensively of late conceding just two goals in their last four games after that rough start. Where Vitesse really struggles is scoring goals where they have only nine goals in their nine league matches but they do have three in two Conference League games.

Spurs have struggled on the road in Europe since their last trip to the Netherlands where they beat Ajax, having lost five and drawn three in 13 matches since Lucas Moura’s big night. Further, having not won in three straight on the road in Europe (D1 L2), Tottenham needs a win.

A fourth straight win on the bounce in all competitions would be a great way to recover from the rough September and keep Spurs as favorites for their first trophy in some time.