Analytics have Tottenham Hotspur predicted to fifth

FiveThirtyEigtht.com produced their predictions for the upcoming Premier League season and the numbers have Tottenham Hotspur outside the top four.

It may be early in the season to be putting much faith in analytics however, the predictions from FiveThirtyEight.com show Tottenham can finish anywhere. According to the numbers the Spurs have as much of a chance of finishing in the top four 3% as they do get relegated. However, of all the outsiders to the top four, Tottenham has the best chance following the preseason.

Numbers like Manchester City too

Just as most pundits do, according to the analytics Manchester City is the team to beat. So favored are the Cityzens – who have a 40% shot to win the league – the calculations cannot see the team finishing below eighth. Manchester City has a less than 1% chance of finishing anywhere below 8th and according to the numbers has an 85% chance of finishing in the top four.

Of course, there are 19 other teams who are going to try and knock off the defending Champions, including Tottenham this weekend, which is why they play the games.

Behind City, we have the usual suspects of Liverpool (21% chance to win, 69% chance of top four), Chelsea (17% chance to win, 65% chance of top four), and Manchester United (11% chance to win, 52% chance of top four).

Based on the numbers, one of those four teams – City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and United – has an 89% chance of winning the league, leaving little for the rest of the clubs.

Tottenham atop of the rest of the pack

After Manchester United, Tottenham (3% chance to win, 25% chance of top four), Arsenal (2% chance to win, 20% chance of top four), and Leicester (2% chance to win, 20% chance of top four) are the only teams with more than a least a 1% chance of winning the League.

West Ham, who finished 6th last season above Spurs and Arsenal has only a 10% chance of bettering their finish and making the top four and are almost as likely 9% to be relegated.

Relegation percentages are interesting

Whereas none of the projected top four have a more than 1% chance of being relegated, starting with Tottenham, the odds appear. In fact, Spurs have an equal chance (3%) of being relegated as they do finishing in first. For Arsenal and Leicester, they actually have a greater chance (4%) of being relegated than they do winning the league with both on (2%).

According to the numbers Watford (42%), Norwich (42%), and Crystal Palace (37%) are the most likely teams to be relegated. However, all is not lost for Palace as they do have a 1% chance at finishing in the top four, which neither Norwich nor Watford share.

The separation between the top four and the rest

While Tottenham is the next best team according to the predictions, after the top four sides, the gap is expected to be big. based on the simulated seasons, Tottenham is projected to finish 10 points behind United on just 59 points for the season. That is a full 22 points behind City and 15 behind second-placed Liverpool.

As was the case last season, the numbers have Tottenham with a strong enough offense – but conceding too many goals to stick with the front runner. Surely finishing in front of Arsenal, Leicester, and West Ham is a positive, however, still be on the outside of the top four looking in is not.

With the ambition of the fans and the loans on the stadium, getting Champions League money is what is going to set Spurs on the right path moving forward. If these numbers tell us anything at this point, it is that Tottenham has their work cut out for them.