It all comes down to this. For the majority of the season, Tottenham Hotspur actually being relegated, after 48 uninterrupted seasons in the top division, has felt like an abstract construct. For many the worst fear, for others beyond their wildest dreams. Well now, going into the final day, it is still a possibility, potentially an even more likely one than fans may fear and first realise.
On Tuesday night, Spurs would have secured safety by earning a point against Chelsea. However, as has pretty much been an annual event for three and a half decades, the Lilywhites were beaten at Stamford Bridge, 2-0 down before they really started playing, Richarlison's goal very much in vein. So, ahead of the final day, Spurs are two points clear of West Ham in 18th, with a goal difference that is superior by 12. Given the goal difference, Roberto De Zerbi's side need just a point at home to Everton to preserve their Premier League status, even if West Ham beat Leeds only six miles away.
However, Tottenham's home Premier League form over the last season and a half does not instil confidence and belief.
Tottenham's home Premier League record (10 Nov 2024-present)
- Matches played: 32. Tottenham wins: 4. Draws: 9. Tottenham defeats: 19.
- Tottenham goals scored: 41. Tottenham goals conceded: 62. Clean Sheets: 3.
Given that, across the last 561 days, Spurs have only enjoyed home Premier League wins over Manchester United, Southampton, Burnley and Brentford, Sunday is unlikely to be straight-forward. During these 32 matches, losing 19, Tottenham have enjoyed only three clean sheets so, chances are, Everton will score at some point, potentially even going ahead, so how does De Zerbi's team react to that, should it come to pass?
With all that in mind, how likely is a Spurs defeat coupled with a dreaded West Ham win?
Percentage chance of Premier League relegation:
- West Ham United: 85.91%. Tottenham Hotspur: 14.09%.
Note: Percentages courtesy of Squawka.
According to the the prediction statistics, there is still just over a 14% chance that Tottenham are relegated on Sunday. Facing an Everton team with very little to play for and without a win in six, all logic suggests Spurs will get the point they need, but fans are right to be worried.
So, has a team ever been relegated on the final despite beginning it outside the drop zone?
Premier League clubs kicking off in bottom 3 but surviving on final day
2004/05
- Points ahead of the final day: West Brom 31. Crystal Palace 32. Southampton 32.
Norwich 33.
- Results: Fulham 6-0 Norwich. Charlton 2-2 Crystal Palace. Southampton 1-2 Manchester United. West Brom 2-0 Portsmouth.
- West Browmich Albion kicked off bottom but survived.
2006/07
- Points ahead of the final day: Charlton 33. Wigan 35. Sheffield United 38. West Ham 38. Fulham 39.
- Results: Liverpool 2-2 Charlton Athletic. Sheffield United 1-2 Wigan Athletic. Manchester United 0-1 West Ham United. Middlesbrough 3-1 Fulham.
- Charlton and Sheffield United relegated; Wigan and West Ham survived.
2010/11
- Points ahead of the final day: Wigan 39. Blackpool 39. Birmingham 39. Wolves 40. Blackburn 40.
- Results: Stoke 0-1 Wigan. Manchester United 4-2 Blackpool. Tottenham 2-1 Birmingham. Wolves 2-3 Blackburn.
- Wolves, Wigan & Blackburn survived; Birmingham & Blackpool relegated.
2014/15
- Points ahead of the final day: Newcastle 34 (-25GD). Hull 34 (-18GD).
- Results: Hull City 0-0 Manchester United. Newcastle United 2-0 West Ham United.
- Newcastle United survived; Hull relegated.
2021/22
- Points ahead of the final day: Leeds 35 (-36GD). Burnley 35 (-18GD).
- Results: Brentford 1-2 Leeds United. Burnley 1-2 Newcastle United.
- Leeds United survived; Burnley relegated.
This century, there have been five instances of a club starting the day in the Premier League relegation zone but beating the drop. West Brom, Wigan twice, Newcastle and Leeds United have all achieved this, with all Spurs fans hoping the name West Ham does not join this list. So, will Tottenham avoid the single worst day in the club's 144-year history?
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