Tottenham were left heartbroken by a stoppage-time equaliser on Saturday, conceding five minutes into stoppage time to give up what would have been a huge win. Xavi Simons put Spurs 2-1 up against Brighton, only for a Kevin Danso mistake to lead to a Georginio Rutter equaliser in the 95th minute.
The draw means Tottenham have failed to climb out of the relegation zone. With Nottingham Forest overcoming their injury concerns and beating Burnley, Spurs could be in a tricky situation going into their last five games, albeit they do play bottom club Wolves next.
That is going to be a must-win, with trickier games still to come for Tottenham. Aston Villa, Leeds United, Chelsea and Everton await the Lilywhites in the final run-in, and given their current form, there will be concern going into those games, especially if they cannot get three points against Wolves.
On the positive side, Nottingham Forest have a brutal run-in, and they also have the Europa League semi-finals to worry about, facing Aston Villa over two legs. The tough run-in means there is pressure aplenty on Forest beating Burnley on Sunday.
Tottenham's updated relegation probabulity looks grim
At this stage, the relegation battle is still too close to call, but what has the draw with Brighton done to impact Tottenham's survival chances? According to the experts at Opta, who run various simulations to get a most likely scenario, Spurs are still the most likely team to finish in 18th place.
Team | Relegation probability |
|---|---|
Tottenham | 56.58% |
West Ham | 38.47% |
Nottingham Forest | 4.50% |
The data now puts them at a relegation probability of 56.58%, which is by far the biggest percentage of the clubs still involved in the battle for safety.
West Ham's percentage is 38.47%, while Forest have a relegation probability of just 4.50%, which is a little surprising given the fixtures they still have to negotiate.
Roberto De Zerbi remains confident
Spurs boss De Zerbi was asked after the Brighton game whether he is now more confident of survival. He responded: "Yes I always thought and believed in the quality of the players. They played a good game,
"I think we can play better than today with much more quality and more calm, especially when we are in possession, but in this moment we need this spirit, this attitude and this mentality. It is not finished yet. We have another five games. It is tough. Every one of us knows it is a tough moment, it is a difficult situation, but we have another five games and 15 points."
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