Four key factors that could deliver Spurs a Premier League title

Ten days after sacking Tottenham’s first European Cup-winning manager since REO Speedwagon’s Hi Infidelity topped the charts, Daniel Levy sat down for an in-house interview with newly appointed CEO Vinai Venkatesham and proclaimed: “It’s not enough. It’s what we haven’t done that’s more important. We need to win the league.”

It was an uncharacteristically bold declaration from the chairman, given the club’s dearth of silverware during his 25-year tenure, the “We Want Levy Out!” chants echoing through Tottenham Stadium, and the public condemnation he received during fan protests for prioritizing commercial interests over investment in the squad. He will have seen the “24 Years. 16 Managers. 1 Trophy” banners and heard the “Can Beyoncé Play Up Front?” chants reverberating not far from where he plans to build a 30-story hotel with club revenue. It would help explain why he felt compelled to add “the reason we do all these other events is to provide additional financial resources to the club, which in turn goes back into the team. Everything is about the team.”

If Levy intends to stay true to his word, he would be wise to task his new Football Insights and Strategy team with identifying key areas of improvement for the squad. Using empirical data from the last 12 years, we found four factors that directly equate to Premier League success.

Wage Bill

Historical Evidence: Although Manchester United’s historically league-leading payroll proves the highest wage bill doesn’t ensure Premier League success, building squads with median-salaried players almost guarantees a mid-table finish. Except for Leicester’s 2015-16 title-winning season, every Premier League-winning team in the last dozen years has paid one of the five highest wage bills in England. Exorbitant transfer fees make the headlines, when the primary indicator of a player’s quality is the size of their contract. A club’s fortunes lie on a razor’s edge, to borrow a Herodotus quote; to compete for silverware requires prescience in the transfer market and paying higher salary-to-transfer ratios for world-class players.

Tottenham Takeaway: Levy can boast that he’s spent £463 million in the transfer market since the 2021-22 season, behind only Manchester United and Chelsea. But during that time, the club’s wages-to-revenue ratio has fallen from 57 to 42 percent, the lowest in the Premier League. Spurs currently have the seventh-highest payroll in England at £93.2 million, around 14 percent lower than sixth-place Aston Villa. If Son Heung-min and Cristian Romero depart, Tottenham will lose two of its three highest wage earners, leaving James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski as the only players earning more than £100,000 per week. In comparison, Arsenal paid 18 players at least £100,000 per week last season. The bottom line is that if Levy refuses to increase Spurs’ wage bill, Newcastle or Aston Villa could replace Tottenham in the Big Six.

2013-14: Manchester City (1st)
2014-15: Chelsea (3rd)
2015-16: Leicester (16th)
2016-17: Chelsea (4th)
2017-18: Manchester City (3rd)
2018-19: Manchester City (2nd)
2019-20: Liverpool (5th)
2020-21: Manchester City (4th)
2021-22: Manchester City (3rd)
2022-23: Manchester City (3rd)
2023-24: Manchester City (2nd)
2024-25: Liverpool (5th)

*Data provided by Capology.

Home Form

Historical Evidence: One of the most accurate indicators of Premier League success is home form. Nine of the last 12 title-winning teams finished the season with the highest home point total, and the other three ranked a close second, separated by a combined total of five points. Collectively, those teams accumulated an average of 48.33 points at home, while conceding less a goal per match. So to have a realistic chance of finishing the season at the top of the table, teams need to take more than 45 points from a possible 57 at their home ground. That means winning at least 14 out of 19 matches while only losing once.

Tottenham Takeaway: Tottenham’s home record last season ranked fifth-worst in the Premier League. They gained an abysmal 21 points at home, just over half of the 39 they earned the previous season when they finished fifth in the league. They had a zero goal differential at Tottenham Stadium, where they won only six of 19 games while conceding 35 goals. Spurs’ profligacy is particularly troubling given that they only conceded 30 away goals last season. Thomas Frank will need to double last season’s home points total to have any chance of qualifying for a European spot next season.

*Data provided by Statmuse.

Goals Conceded

Historical Evidence: Legendary Alabama football coach Paul “Bear” Bryant is credited with coining the phrase: “Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championships.” Although the quote has become something of a cliché, the theory holds true in the Premier League, where half of the last 12 title-winning teams conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League. In fact, no team has lifted the trophy when finishing lower than third in goals allowed. Recent champions have conceded an average of 32.25 goals per season, due in large part to exceptional goalkeeping. Only six shot-stoppers have won the Premier League since 2013-14, and four of them (Petr Čech, Thibaut Courtois, Ederson, Alisson) have been named IFFHS World’s Best Goalkeeper.

Tottenham Takeaway: Tottenham conceded 65 goals last season, their second-most in the Premier League era. Those woeful numbers can be attributed to injuries that caused starting center-backs Micky van de Ven and Christian Romero to miss 46 games combined. When they played together—including the 3-4 Chelsea debacle when both went off with injuries—the pairing only conceded 19 goals in 18 matches. Spurs defensive structure will be more pragmatic under Thomas Frank than Ange Postecoglou. Guglielmo Vicario will play fewer short passes from goal kicks, while defenders will seldom be seen in the opponent’s box during open play. However, losing Cristian Romero would be catastrophic, and Frank will need to add another defender to cope with the minimum 49-game season that awaits.

Managerial Pedigree

Historical Evidence: What do Manuel Pellegrini, José Mourinho, Claudio Ranieri, Antonio Conte, Roberto Mancini, Pep Guardiola, Jürgen Klopp, and Arne Slot all have in common aside from winning the Premier League? They were all title-winning managers in Europe before coming to the Premier League (Ranieri won Serie B), and none of them are British. Nationality aside, the most successful managers know how to cope with grueling league campaigns and knock-out cup competitions, they attract the world’s best players, and they understand which metrics produce the best results. Statistically speaking, their teams typically dominate touches in the penalty area and complete the highest percentage of progressive passes in their opponent's half, per Wyscout.

Tottenham Takeaway: There is no getting around the fact that Thomas Frank doesn't have the bona fides of recent Premier League title-winning managers. Despite achieving a club-best ninth-place finish in the Premier League with Brentford, he has never finished higher than third in the Danish Superliga, and the two teams he took to the Europa League failed to reach the group stage. Now he’ll have to balance weekend Premier League fixtures with mid-week Champions League nights. That said, his record of improving young players, getting the most out of his strikers, and tactical adaptation should bode well for Spurs. In my view, a “successful” season would be finishing top-6 in the league, qualifying for the Champions League play-off round, and reaching a semifinal in either of the two domestic cup competitions.