“To dare is to do” goes the Tottenham Hotspur motto, which is odd considering how little Tottenham have attacked the opponent’s net this season and how conservatively they have played. That’s thanks to Roberto De Zerbi, who, after saving Spurs from the drop last season, was able to fully implement his tactical system over the summer. It has been a predictable failure.
A disciple of Marcelo Bielsa, De Zerbi maintains a rigid, almost zealous belief in playing out from the back. The key to his system is baiting the press and thereby opening up angles to break the opponent’s lines. If there is a positional overload in favor of his team, then he wants them to attack. If they haven’t yet gained an advantage, then De Zerbi wants his team to develop play slowly. It’s logical, and it served him well early in his career.
At Sassuolo, he guided a small Italian club to European contention. In the 2021-22 season, he had Shaktar Donetsk positioned to win the Ukrainian Premier League until the Russian invasion forced the abandonment of the season. At Brighton in 2022-23, he guided the Seagulls to a sixth-place finish and to the semifinals of the FA Cup. Then opposing managers become wise to De Zerbi’s tactics, sat in a low block, and clogged the middle of the pitch. Suddenly, the logic of De Zerbi’s tactics crumbled.
Brighton slipped to 11th in De Zerbi’s second season in charge, then he moved to Marseille in Ligue 1. He found initial success, but in his second season in France OM collapsed into a hole that they are still mired in. Now in his second campaign in North London, De Zerbi is facing the same old problem.
His players wheel the ball around, unable to find a direct line of attack. They get frustrated, and they start whipping the ball into the box. The crosses find no one, because no one has been positioned to receive those crosses, so they start flailing at the ball outside of the box. Happy to concede such low-percentage shots and passes, the opponents are happy to allow Spurs to have the ball. Rinse and repeat.
Roberto De Zerbi can’t figure out how to make his team dangerous
Statistics indicate exactly what Spurs look like right now: A punchless, mediocre side.
Tottenham have completed the third-most passes in the Premier League this season, and only Manchester United sits ahead of them in passes in the final third. Only two teams have crossed the bar more. Only two teams possess the ball more. Discount their performance at Brentford on the season’s opening day, and Spurs also have a sound defensive record. But Spurs are like that nerd in gym class who gets the ball and doesn’t know what to do with it.
They have the lowest expected goals per shot and have scored just two goals in five league games. That’s in large part because, with the second-worst forward pass percentage, Spurs are either reluctant to or can’t figure out how to attack when their opponents sit back and crowd the middle of the pitch.
This could be a symptom of Tottenham’s lack of natural number 10. This could be a symptom of uninspiring play from either Omar Marmoush and Dom Solanke in the number 9. It could also be a symptom of a curse Ange Postecoglu put on the team on his way out the door. Whatever the problem is, it is Robert De Zerbi’s responsibility to address it.
But as we’ve seen time and again, De Zerbi would rather adhere to his tactical dogma than make adjustments based on his players' skills and the opponents' tactics. He has either forgotten or failed to realize that, in professional sports, that the only worthy philosophy is doing whatever it takes to win.
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