Tottenham Hotspur top four hopes dented not doomed by loss

The loss to Southampton hurt Tottenham Hotspur when the team was trying to climb; however, the loss leaves Spurs top-four hopes dented but not doomed. 

If you spend too much time online listening to fans and pundits, one might think Tottenham Hotspur fell to last place with their recent loss to Southampton. Instead, the loss damaged Spurs’ top-four hopes, not decimated them, at least according to the analytics of fivethirtyeight.com.

Tottenham is losing ground in the table

Arsenal and West Ham drew, while Manchester United took one point, pushing all three teams further in front of Spurs. Still, the same seventh in the actual table as before losing to Southampton, Tottenham essentially conceded a game in hand with the loss.

Dropping points puts added pressure on Tottenham to get maximum points from those make-up games, which is easier said than done when looking at how the league scheduled the Burnley match.

While their league position did not change, the loss did move Spurs down the list of favourites to finish in the top four in the Premier League.

In fivethittyeight.com’s prior probabilities table during the international break, Tottenham held a slight edge over Arsenal and others with a 39% chance of qualifying for the Champions League. That 39% chance was five percentage points better than Arsenal, who sat at 34%.

Fast forward to the probability table of today, While still ahead of United and the Hammers, Spurs have fallen behind Arsenal by a considerable margin. The Gunners jumped 12% points to a 46% probability while Spurs dropped to 24%.

A big part of the Tottenham probability drop is the diminished chances of Spurs finishing third, which dropped from 7% to 3% with the loss. That three percent chance of finishing third combines with a 21% chance of finishing fourth to create the 24% chance Tottenham currently has, 12% less than the probability that Arsenal finishes fourth.

Overall, Spurs still have a better chance than most to finish in the top four; it is just not as good an opportunity as before the loss to Southampton.