Tottenham Hotspur: Top four finish possible but unrealistic

The mathematics of it all says anything is possible but odds and form and say a top-four finish is unrealistic for Tottenham Hotspur. In sports anything is possible and the Spurs have the talent and schedule to do something remarkable but even a fantastic finish may not be enough. In looking at the run-in for Tottenham and their competition, the hole may just be too great for the Lilywhites to overcome.

Reasonable run-in for Tottenham

The reality is if Tottenham can find any kind of form at all they have a reasonable run-in with their last five matches to finish the season. Despite not really having any form of late, Spurs are still favorites to win three of their final five matches, according to fivethirtyeight.com.

Tottenham favorites at home not on the road

While not the only factor, fivethirtyeight.com has the Spurs as favorites to win their three remaining home matches. Tottenham faces Sheffield United – this coming weekend – then against Wolves and Aston Vill in a couple of weeks at home. Alternatively, Spurs are underdogs for their two remaining road matches – against Leeds United and Leicester City.

The odds say Tottenham is only going to finish with nine more points, which would take the Lilywhites up to 62 total points. 62 points would be enough to pip Arsenal – who can earn no more than 61 – but likely would leave the team in eighth place a couple of points back of seventh-place Everton. Eight places would of course be outside even the expanded European competition of next season.

Even 15 points may not be enough for Tottenham

The Spurs may be underdogs against Leeds and Leicester City but Tottenham is quite capable of beating both and taking all 15 points to finish the season. If the Lilywhites could manage to take all 15 points and finish on 68, it could give them a chance, but odds are still slim as a couple of teams do have more favorable run-ins.

Both Liverpool and West Ham are going to be favorites to win all five of their remaining games. The odds of either – or Tottenham – going on to win five straight are slim but given Liverpool and West Ham are both in front of the Spurs, Tottenham needs them both to slip up. Both teams only have one more top-half team to play, with Liverpool going to Old Trafford this weekend and West Ham still has to host Everton.

Spurs needs lots of help to finish top four

Tottenham needs both Liverpool and West Ham to slip up so they can move up and even then Chelsea and Leicester have the inside track. Chelsea has a tricky run-in with Manchester City, Arsenal, and Leicester all in a row before closing with Villa. Add in obligations in the Champions League and Chelsea could slip up.

Leicester has two more winnable match-ups against Southampton and Newcastle before a tough closing three. The Lions finish the season facing Manchester United, Chelsea, and Spurs on the last day. If Leicester can hang on, no one will be able to say they did not earn it.

Likewise, if somehow Tottenham can figure it all out and win five straight they have a chance and would have earned it too. However, it is far more likely even with 15 points, Spurs fans and the club are left wondering about what might have been. So while yes Tottenham still has a chance to reach the top four, those chances feel far smaller than the 8% fivethirtyeight.com is giving.