Do Analytics Support Tottenham this Season? Yes they do.

Premier League Rankings

Despite a slow start to the season, the analytics cannot seem to get over Manchester City in the Premier League predictions. Analytics have Manchester City far and away still the winners of the league predicting 80 points. So sure, are the numbers of City, they are still a 46% chance to win the entire league and at 92% are nearly a lock for Champions League next season.

Currently the analytics have Liverpool finishing second on 77 points as the only other team – besides City – to accumulate more than 70 points on the year. Likewise, Liverpool are good bets – at 83% – to make the Champions League again. The odds Liverpool win the title, however, are quite diminished compared to City at 29%.

For those doing some simple math at home, the analytics say there is a 75% chance that either Manchester City or Liverpool win the Premier League. That sure does not leave much for anyone else. Manchester United and Chelsea are predicted to finish third and fourth both on 68 points. Both also have a better than 50% chance of making the Champions League at 51 and 52 percent each and are both 7% to win the Premier League.

Finally, when we get to the fifth-place team in the Premier League the computer pops out Tottenham Hotspur. Spurs are predicted to finish 5th on 67 points and have just under a 1 in 2 chance of making the Champions League at 49%. Add in a 6% chance to win the League and the computer has pretty much given us all it will.

Leicester City is the only other team to register a full percent chance of winning the League right at 1%. That is six teams accounting for 97% of the chance of winning the league, which does not leave much for the other 14 teams.

If you are again curious about Arsenal, all is not lost as they have a greater chance of making top 4 – 4% than being relegated 3%, so Gunner fans should be fine. The most interesting part of the computer rankings is how much it loves Manchester United, who they have finishing above Chelsea and Tottenham despite predicting a far inferior goal difference, I guess some things never change, even with computers.

Tottenham in Europa League

Now that the draw for the Round of 32 has concluded the predictions have changed in Europa League. Tottenham went from the second most likely team to win the tournament – behind Manchester United – to the number 1 most likely.

Given Manchester United must face Real Sociedad in the Round of 32, the odds of advancing have been diminished, however, if United get past the Spaniards, expect them to reclaim the top percentage chance of winning the competition.

Currently, Tottenham have the best odds at each stage of the competition, with the highest odds to advanced to the next round and the one thereafter. Spurs along with Leverkusen both currently sit top with a 10% chance of wining the Europa League. Further the computer thinks Tottenham have nearly a 1 in 5 chance – 19% – of making the Final in Gdansk, Poland. Do not go buy plane tickets just yet, but still makes you feel good about the team.

Analytics the Answer?

Of course, percentages and analytics do not guarantee anything, but they do tell us that Spurs are currently passing a different kind of smell test. While the eyes and the preferences of fans can lead one to believe Tottenham are or are not for real, numbers usually do not lie.

With more than a third of the season gone, the numbers have a big enough sample size to be meaningful. So, what does this all mean? Well Spurs have a chance, which is something we already knew, but now the numbers know it too!