Tottenham v Brighton a Quick Look Back

Despite both clubs being more than 115 years old, Tottenham has only faced Brighton & Hove Albion 14 times in their collective histories.

According to WorldFootball.net, Tottenham Hotspur have an 8-3-3 all-time record against the Brighton & Hove Albion Seagulls in 14 total games. This low total of matches is mostly because after their meeting in the 1982-83 season, Brighton was out of the top flight of English Football for more than 35 years.

Between 1982-83 and 2017-18, when Brighton returned to the top flight met twice.  The first was in Round 3 of 2004/05 FA Cup, a 2-1 Spurs victory, and the second was in the Round of 16 of the 2014-15 League Cup, a 2:0 Spurs win.

Since there is so little shared history between the two clubs, we can only lean on the two matches from last season to get any indication of what Spurs might be in for on Saturday.

12/2017 Spurs win 2-0

Tottenham first met Brighton last season on Matchday 17, in December of 2017 at Wembley. This 2-0 Spurs’ victory appears quite lopsided when looking at the stats. The Lillywhite’s held more than 75% of the possession in the game, more than tripling the number of passes attempted by the Seagulls, 749 for Spurs to 248 for the Gulls. Further Tottenham have more than 4 times as many shots, with 25 shots compared to Brighton’s 7.

Despite the great advantages in many statistical categories it stood out to me that of those 7 shots taken by the Seagulls, 4 were on target. While they didn’t score any of those 4 against Hugo Lloris, I’m not sure I’m as confident that Michel Vorm has 4 on goal saves in him each game.  Furthermore, what this tells me is that the Spurs tendency to give up several opportunities each game, which results in attempts on frame is not new this season. Just when Hugo is back there, not as many get through.

Both of Spurs goals came toward the end of each half. The first was an overhit cross by Serge Aurier that nestled in the far-left upper corner at the 40-minute mark. The second was a Heung-Min Son header in the 83^rd minute off a Christian Eriksen set piece delivery.

While only the 8 of 24 shots were on target for Tottenham a further five were blocked, and Brighton made an amazing 37 clearances in the game. In the end, not the prettiest of games, but a solid and deserved Spurs victory.

4/2018 Spurs Tie 1-1

In the second meeting of the season between Tottenham and Brighton, Spurs were again in control of possession, but not as dominantly as they were in the December meeting. On Matchday 34, Spurs maintained the ball 64% of the time, which while still a domination of possession, not nearly as overwhelming as the December matchup.

In fact, after more than tripling the number of passes Brighton attempted in December, Tottenham did not even double the number of passes in April. This time Spurs attempted 634 passes to the Seagulls 357.

Additionally, the shot edge went from a 4:1 Spurs advantage to only 2:1 as Brighton managed 8 shots to Tottenham’s 16. More alarmingly for Spurs, the on-target shot advantage was only 6-5 in this game. Unfortunately, one of those 5 shots for Brighton was a converted penalty less than 1 minute after the restart from a Harry Kane goal that had put Spurs ahead at the 48^th minute.

As a mark of how much closer this second match really was, Brighton had 29 clearances down from 37 in the December meeting and Tottenham had 14, up from 3 in December. That said, if Aurier doesn’t commit a foul in the box, Spurs probably would have won. But he did, and they ended up tied.

Implications on This Season

Well some of the more developed cracks in Spurs armor were beginning to show in the two Brighton fixtures last season. To have over 70% of possession and still give up 4 shots on target isn’t going to beat most teams. Teams with a quality striker don’t need 4 attempts on target.

I’m sure every Spurs fan would LOVE to see Harry Kane get 4 quality looks on goal each match, versus the 1 half-chance/half-foul he had against Inter. As Spurs further saw in the April draw that even with Hugo, that 5^th shot on target given up, especially if a penalty, might just be a goal. Spurs have got to find a way to limit other teams’ opportunities for clean/clear looks at goal, which is where most shots on target come from.

As per usual, expect to see Spurs dominate possession of the ball, but who dominates the passing will tell a lot about how things turn out. If it is the back 3 or 4 that have the most passes for Spurs, instead of Eriksen or Winks or someone else in the midfield, that means we probably spent a lot more time in the middle third as opposed to the attacking third.

Brighton this Season

Okay, so we Spurs’ fans all know where Tottenham sits at this point in the campaign, suffering 3 straight losses for the first time under Mauricio Pochettino. Hey, it could be worse, we could be Cleveland Browns fans who just won for the first time in over 600 days.

I digress, the point is, we know where Tottenham are right now, what about Brighton?

Brighton & Hove Albion currently sit 14^th in the table, just behind Southampton on goal difference with 5 points, from 1 win and two draws in their last two matches. The win was a big one a 3-2 victory at the Amex Stadium over Manchester United. One week prior to Tottenham’s own victory over MU.

Brighton followed that big win up with a 1-0 loss at Anfield to Liverpool and then the two draws against Fulham and Southampton. While it might sound strange, sitting at 14^th on 5 points, I imagine many Seagull supporters are okay with the start of the season. Further a win against a struggling Tottenham team could conceivably move Brighton into the Top 10 in the early Premier League campaign.

Now I don’t think Brighton will beat Tottenham Saturday evening, but I didn’t think Spurs would lose three in a row and it is hard to say who will truly be fit Saturday and what the line-up may look like. Hopefully, Dele is fit, plays, and scores, because we all know if Dele scores in the Premier League, Tottenham are not going to lose. Beyond that who makes the most passes for Spurs, will be a telling statistic with the results.