How the sports books rate Tottenham’s Premier League title chances
By Gary Pearson
Oftentimes sports books offer a good indication of how a team is expected to fare in any given season, but what chance do they give Tottenham’s title hopes?
Sports books do get it wrong
Top sports books get things terribly wrong sometimes. Scroll back to the 2015-16, when Leicester won the Premier League, to find the most obvious example of their egregious misjudgment.
It would be severely harsh, however, to judge them on that anomaly, particularly as nobody in their right mind gave the Foxes a fighting chance. Leicester, at the start of the 2015-16 season, were touted by Ladbrokes as 5000/1 astronomical long shots to be crowned Premier League champions.
To the chagrin of Spurs’ supporters, the stars miraculously aligned for Leicester. It’s unlikely that we’ll ever see that astonishing feat, no matter your age, recur in our lifetime.
Chelsea, before the 2016-17 season commenced, were 5/1 third favourites to hoist the Premier League trophy, a much more realistic offering. Spurs, however, were pegged as 22/1 sixth favourites.
Both Spurs and Chelsea proved the sports books, and most of the betting public, wrong.
So, where is the off-season cash going and are Spurs in a better place than their sixth-favourite status from a year ago.
Are Premier League future betting lines actually a good indication of how teams will do when the season kicks off in August?
What are Tottenham’s 2017-18 future betting odds?
William Hill has Spurs pegged as fourth favourites, at +800, to win the Premier League title. Manchester City, at +175, are clear favourites and sit atop William Hill’s future odds table, while Manchester United, +333, and Chelsea, +350, round out the top three.
Arsenal come in sixth place, at +1200, on the favourites chart, the same position Spurs were in at this time last year.
Ladbrokes, another juggernaut in the English betting market, also have Spurs as fourth favourites to win the title outright, with 8/1 odds. City (9/5), Chelsea (3/1) and United (10/3) once again take the top three spots, this time with Chelsea slightly pipping United for second.
And if you’re in the US, Bovada makes it a consensus, with Spurs once again residing as fourth favourites (+900). The usual suspects form the top three positions.
Are Spurs’ betting lines accurate?
Based on last season’s performance, one would say the 2017-18 future betting lines miss the mark. But future betting lines aren’t solely based on previous performances, instead taking into account transfer market activity among other valuation variables. It boils down to which team the overall betting market backs, which at this embryonic stage of the pre-season is clearly City.
Spurs lack of transfer activity has affected their future odds, but that might bear little importance on the team’s title-winning aspirations. Therefore Spurs’ future odds, based on the variables sports books use, are where you’d expect.
Tottenham have their main adversaries exactly where they want them, City and United’s future odds inflated due to big-money transfers. Those teams are touted highly on paper, and rightly so.
Future odds can offer a false sense of security, though.
Next: So, just who are these kids travelling to the US with Tottenham?
Premier League titles aren’t won on paper, nor do teams earn points for having a litany of exalted superstars on their team sheet. Titles are won on the pitch, and going on last season’s performances, Spurs – and their supporters – shouldn’t concern themselves with whose above them in the eyes of sports books and the betting public.
The current future odds, however, do offer great value for Spurs’ supporters, so get your bets in early if you have intentions of backing Tottenham.