Analytics Again Support Tottenham Hotspur Following Recent Run of Form

Tottenham Hotspur has seemingly recovered from a major slump in results, with three straight wins in the league for the first time since November. Add in a win in Europa League and suddenly Spurs have won four straight in all competitions, an actual winning streak. The accumulation of wins and points has not gone unnoticed by the computers, as odds of Tottenham Hotspur making the top four have crept back up according to fivethrityeight.com.

Tottenham Needed the Nine Points

Three weeks ago we were writing about the longshot odds Tottenham was being given to advance in Europa League or achieve top four in the Premier League. However, just a couple of weeks and three wins later and Tottenham’s odds have gone up considerably. Tottenham only had a 12% chance of making the top four at that time, now nine big points later and Spurs’ odds have doubled to 24% on the FiveThirtyEight site.

Manchester City all but Champions

Currently, Tottenham has the sixth-best odds at 24% of making it to the promised land of guaranteed Champions League football next season. Despite losing to Manchester United on Sunday, Manchester City are all but Champions Elect at this point and are registering a 99% chance of winning the league, so only spots 2-4 are really up for grabs.

Even then, the computer seems to think very, very highly of Manchester United. With a 90% chance of making the top four according to the analytics, Manchester United seems pretty secure. It is after United that things start to deviate from the actual Premier League table. Although three points back of Leicester City for third, FiveThirtyEight.com has the Blues at better odds than Leicester City to finish in the top four. At a 73% chance, Chelsea has to feel good too.

If you believe the odds, it is a fight for fourth

Leicester City at 54% and West Hame at 30% are also currently more likely – based on the odds – to make the top four than Tottenham at 24%. Liverpool is a step behind Tottenham at 19%, then Everton, Arsenal, and Aston Villa all have a very long shot with chances in the single digits.

It is important to remember that when all the odds are added together the total should equal 400 as there are four spots up for grabs. With that in mind, Chelsea’s 73% is not as secure as it sounds, nor do Spurs truly have a 1 in 4 shot at making it, although it would be nice to think so. Ultimately, with seven teams all within 11 points of one another, another nine points from nine, and who knows where Spurs might sit.

Analytics favor Premier League in Europa League

After Leicester City was eliminated in the Round of 32, there are now three Premier League teams left in the Europa League this season. If you go by the odds produced by the analytics, chances are one of Manchester United, Arsenal, or Tottenham will be winning it all.

Combined, the three clubs are currently rated at a 50% chance one of the three wins the tournament. Manchester United is most highly favored with a 38% chance of making the final and a 25% chance of winning the whole thing. Arsenal is actually second with a 25% chance of making the final and a 14% chance of winning the competition.

Then in third at 21% reaching the finals and an 11% chance of winning the whole thing comes Tottenham and Ajax, both with equal odds. For Tottenham, those odds are up from three weeks ago, but still well below the odds from before the Spurs slump. Of course, the odds improving are much better than the alternative and what that would mean.