Top four may not be enough for Tottenham in wacky season

Since losing in Europa League, the common thinking for Tottenham Hotspur fans is that if the team can somehow, someway, finish fourth place and make the Champions League next season, all will be well. However, what would seem improbable suddenly seems quite possible in the Premier League this season, which is that fourth place may not be enough to get Tottenham into the Champions League next season.

Premier League Could Sweep Europe

Okay, the Premier League sweeping Europe on the surface is not necessarily a bad thing. However, if both the Europa League and Champions League winners are from the Premier League and finish outside the top four, the fourth-place team then drops into the Europa League.

Currently, the favorites to win both Europa League and Champions League are English clubs. According to fivethirtyeight.com Manchester City have a 42% to win the Champions League and Manchester United has a 35% chance of winning the Europa League. With these two teams, both one and two in the Premier League at current, fourth place is safe.

However, you only have to look to the third most likely team in both tournaments to find a potential problem for Tottenham or anyone who finishes fourth. Tottenham’s London rivals, Chelsea and Arsenal are both at 17% to win the Champions League and Europa League respectively.

Of course the chances of them both winning are less than 17% but it is not out of the realm of possibility nor is thinking both teams finish outside the top four. As of today, both are on the outside of the top four looking in. Arsenal, currently has a less than 1% chance of making the top four, while Chelsea is a different story.

Tottenham not only team fighting

Chelsea, along with West Ham, Liverpool, and possibly Everton are all teams who like Tottenham are fighting to get that coveted fourth place position and the final spot in the Champions League. Likely, both Chelsea and Arsenal will not win the  UEFA competitions and have Chelsea finish outside the top four.

Frankly, as a Tottenham fan, this overall scenario has me more confident about taking fourth place, because only Tottenham could take fourth place and still lose that coveted Champions league birth. Unlikely, but in this crazy season anything can happen.