Algorithm May be Broken if Saka Worth More than Kane and Greenwood

CIES Football Observatory published their updated transfer value list and based on the results, the algorithm seems off for Tottenham talisman and more.

I understand that when it comes to player values, there is more than just age and ability involved. Actual performance, position, contract and more can impact a player’s value. However, when you have players like Bukayo Saka valued more than Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane, maybe they should recheck their algorithm. While age and contract should impact value there is clearly something off.

Age, Contract, Value

The basics of the equation are simple enough, rather than it just being your value, the formula weighs given characteristics to greater or lesser value. With contract length, someone with a longer contract gives a club greater leverage in any potential transfer, thus driving up the players value.

Alternatively, if a player is toward the end of their deal, their value drops as there is less potential return. Tottenham fans should know this well in terms of the dropping value of Christian Eriksen last season where a player that was valued at a much higher rate got back a lower transfer fee.  Likewise, if a player is older than their value may be diminished.

The two main examples provided in the explanation are Leo Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Messi is valued at only €54M 97th on their list and Ronaldo was worth only €47m, 131st. As a point of reference, Messi is valued at about €72m and Ronaldo €54m on tranfsfermarkt.com. In theory this concept of shorter contract, older player kind of explains Kane being worth less than Saka, but not really.

At 27 with 3 years left on his contract, Harry Kane is really at the prime of his career, but apparently not prime value in this algorithm, where he is valued at €107m. At €116.2 Saka is valued considerably higher than Kane, but at 19 and under contract until 2024 – the same as Kane – it must be the age.

However, Sadio Mane and Mo Salah are both a year older than Harry Kane, and both have one less year left on their contracts, yet they are both valued considerably higher than Kane in this algorithm. Mane is valued at €123.8m and Salah at €134m. Here are two players both older and with fewer years remaining on their contracts yet that value is much higher.

Moving the other direction Bruno Fernandes is only 1-year younger than Kane and has 1 more year on his contract. Based on the algorithm and results for Mane and Salah, one would think Kane was higher than Fernandes. However, this was not the case either as Fernandes was worth more than all the players mentioned at €151.1 and another United player Marcus Rashford was top of the list at €165.6.

The Team Factor

Now there is an element in the algorithm that is supposed to take into account the team and thus the value a club can demand. From this perspective a club like Madrid or Barcelona or even United might be able to demand more money, thus the higher fees for Rashford and Fernandes. However, this still falls apart with Saka.

This is no slight at Arsenal, just a major inconsistency in the algorithm. Mason Greenwood plays for Manchester United, arguably a more prestigious team than Arsenal. Greenwood is the same age and has the same number of years left on his contract, yet he is slotted below even Harry Kane. How Greenwood, who is the same age and has produced in the Premier League is below Saka makes you really question the legitimacy of the algorithm being run here.

Not Transfermarket

If you go back and compare more to transfermarkt.com you see that there are quite a few places where this algorithm seems to have some biases. Kylian Mbappe is the highest valued player in the world, and rightfully so at Transfermrkt.com. While valuable, Rashford is 16th on that list at less than half of what CIES has him listed at. Transfermrkt.com also has Greenwood (€55m) worth more than Saka (€44m) and things seem right as Harry Kane (€107) is the second most valuable player on the continent.

When you start seeing the kind of inconsistencies found in the CIES market values table, you need to start looking at your work. Hey, I like algorithms and analytics as much as the next guy, but there must be some human consideration and intervention included. Sometimes the human eye sees things a computer cannot, like the actual production and ability of a player as opposed to the name on the front of the shirt, whether that name is Tottenham, Manchester United, or Marine FC.