Tottenham Sit 1st After 10 Games, Is that a Sign for Success

Since Tottenham Hotspur are in first place, HotspurHQ were curious how often the first-place team after 10 matches wins the league, the answer, sometimes.

Tottenham Hotspur have not spent very much time at the top of the Premier League table in the last 10 years. However, with more than a quarter of the Premier League season completed, the top of the table is where Tottenham find themselves ahead of defending Champions Liverpool on goal differential. In truth, being first after 10 games is not a great predictor of for the trophy however six of the last 10 teams in first after 10 weeks went on to win the league.

In the last decade of the leaders after 10 games who went on to win the league, who lost, and what does it mean for Tottenham?

Who Has Won and Lost from the Quarter Post Lead?

In the last ten Premier League seasons six teams have held the lead after 10 matches and gone on to win the Premier League title. Alternatively, four teams have not gone on to win the title after leading the league through 10 matches. The one thing both lists have in common is half of each list is Manchester City.

In five of the last 10 Premier League seasons Manchester City has been in first place after 10 matches. In three of those seasons, 2011-12, 2017-18, and 2018-19 City was able to maintain enough consistency the rest of the way to win the league. However, in 2015-16 and again in 2016-17 City was in first place after 10 and did not go on to win from there.

Interestingly enough for City – and as a nod to their competitiveness for the last 10 years – one of the other teams not to keep the lead after 10 matches was Arsenal in 2013-14, when it was Manchester City who came from six points back in 5th place after 10 matches and won the league. The one other team to not win from pole position at the quarter mark in the last 10 seasons was 2010-11 Chelsea. That team was led by Carlo Ancelotti and was passed by then third place Manchester United for the trophy who were 5 points back after 10 matches.

The three other teams to lead after 10 matches and win all provide at least one reason to give Spurs fans hope. In 2012-13 Manchester United was only ahead by 1 point after 10 matches and went on to win. So, despite being in a close race – like Tottenham is now – the leaders hung on to win. Alternatively, Liverpool were in the lead last season – by six points – and of course ran away with the title.

In a positive trend for Tottenham, Liverpool were the third consecutive Premier League team to lead after 10 matches and win the title, as Manchester City had done it each of the previous two seasons. City led Liverpool by goal difference the years before – when they won the league by 1 point – and held a five-point lead in 2017-18 when they set the league record with 100 points.

The final team to have the lead after 10 matches and hang on for victory is one Tottenham manage José Mourinho knows well, it was his 2014-15 Chelsea. The Blues had a four-point lead over Southampton after 10 matches and went on to win the title. Maintaining consistency is certainly something that the Spurs manager knows something about and is working to instill in this Spurs squad.

Takeaways for Tottenham

A sixty percent win rate is not bad but tells us there is a lot of season left and Tottenham are far from guaranteed anything at this point. Tottenham Hotspur may sit atop the league at this point, but the 21 points Spurs have accumulated are the least points by a first-place side since 2001-02 when Aston Villa had 21 points and Leeds United were second on 20. Neither team went on to factor in the title that season as Arsenal came from third to win the league on 87 points.

In looking at the different teams to hold the lead, outside of the City commonality, nothing stands out to say you will succeed or fail in the title chase. In the two seasons City lost the lead they were only up by goal differential – like Spurs – after 10 matches. However, in 18-19 City led Liverpool by goal differential after 10 matches and still won the league.

Furthermore, having a big lead at this point does not guarantee anything either. Chelsea lost a 5-point lead in 2010-11 under Ancelotti and Arsenal lost a six-point lead in 2013-14 under Wegner. Likewise, a close race does not mean the leader will lose it. Manchester United only led by 1 point in 2012-13 and still went on to win the league. Prior to Spurs this season, the least points of any team in the last 10 seasons was City with 22 points in 2015-16 who sat ahead of Arsenal on goal difference. Of course, Leicester City came back from 5th place to win the league.

So, what does all this mean for Tottenham? It means Spurs have done okay thus far and have put themselves in a position to have a chance this season. While many can conceivably win the league only one team sits where sixty percent of the last 10 winners have sat after 10 matches, Tottenham Hotspur. Hopefully, this is a sign of good things to come.