Dissecting the Icardi-to-Tottenham Rumor

What are the chances that Tottenham breaks the bank to sign Inter’s Mauro Icardi?

According to Sky Sports reporter Gianluca Di Marzio, Tottenham are pondering a bid of £38 million for Inter star Mauro Icardi. Some red flags immediately raise here, not least of which of course is that this is a rumor being reported second hand on Twitter. But we can set that aside for now, and ponder the idea behind this rumor.

Let’s begin with the now-obligatory set of disclaimers that must accompany any rumor linking Tottenham with a big money move for a big name: this, in theory, isn’t how the club does business.  Not anymore.

The Gareth Bale money is all but gone. Moreover, Mauricio Pochettino has found more success over the last two seasons with the likes of Harry Kane, Dele Alli and Eric Dier (cumulative transfer cost: <£10 million) than he has with Roberto Soldado, Érik Lamela and Heung-min Son (cumulative transfer cost: ~£90 million). 

Now, of course, that balance might change as Lamela and Son both continue to mature at Tottenham, but the trend is clear. Pochettino and his recruitment team know their are bargains out there that can perform at levels similar to — or in excess of — the most expensive players on the market.

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Most importantly, when it comes to rumors linking Tottenham with another striker, how exactly can anyone justify spending tens of millions on a player who, at best, will rotate with Kane? It’s fair to say that, should Tottenham have beat Chelsea to signing Marseille’s Michy Batshuayi earlier this week for £30 million, the club’s fanbase would be split down the middle between those excited over his potential and those critical of the amount spent on essentially a bench player.

The same logic needs to be at the forefront of our minds as we consider this Icardi rumor. What can we learn from it, and is there any chance that it’s even remotely true?

First, the facts. Mauro Icardi is an exceptional player. He’s occasionally criticized for disappearing in games or not being quite the clutch player Inter so often require, but there’s no ignoring his overall numbers. Since joining Inter from Sampdoria in 2013, Icardi has made 105 appearances in all competitions for Inter, scoring 52 goals and setting up 15 assists. Only Napoli’s Gonzalo Higuaín can make a better claim for Serie A’s best striker.

Icardi’s accomplished all of this in an Inter team that over the same time period ranged from mediocre to poor. Unlike Higuaín, he doesn’t have Marek Hamsik or Lorenzo Insigne at his back. His goals come more from individual effort than most strikers at better teams than Inter.

Consequently, there’s reason to believe that the Argentine might actually improve in a more stable and quality environment. The asking price of £38 million still seems excessive, but much stranger things have happened in the transfer market.

Should Tottenham be the club to spend that £38 million, it would signal a huge shift in how Pochettino intends to play this coming season. The only way to justify that kind of money would be to start Icardi alongside Kane, a two-striker formation that Pochettino has only flirted with over two seasons in north London.

Kane has almost exclusively been played as the sole center forward at Tottenham, but Icardi would presumably fit right into a two-striker system. His partnerships with Stevan Jovetić were never particularly fruitful last season at Inter, but it’s possible that he could link up with Kane in a similar fashion. The England international would sit deeper — as he is already wont to do — while Icardi keeps the opposing centre-backs occupied in a role closer to a pure poacher.

Next: Should Tottenham Sign Sandro?

This is all idle speculation for right now. Until Tottenham make more obvious moves, it’s safe to assume that this rumor won’t ever progress into being much more than idle chatter.