Predictions and projections make up a chunk of modern football commentary, with more sophisticated analytics supposedly supplying more "okay, this is actually what's going to happen" forecasts.
I'm not going to delve into a data debate here, but I was alerted to a predictions piece from ESPN, which surfaced at the start of the month and was based around 'adjusted goal differential.' It intrigued me.
The author describes this metric as a "blend of 70% expected goals and 30% actual goals," and, using data from the previous ten Premier League seasons as well as the estimated market values of players in the division, they were able to produce a rather unique but potentially accurate projection for how the table will look come the end of the 2025/26 season.
We can only hope that everyone who likes numbers, quadratic equations and 2D shapes are wrong.
Note: these projections were made after Matchday 10.
ESPN predicts respectable Tottenham finish... but Arsenal title triumph
I think the majority of reasonable Tottenham supporters would be content with a fifth-place finish, and that's where this snazzy projection model has us. We're finishing with 59.6 points, comfortably behind Chelsea in fourth.
Assuming the Premier League's coefficient remains strong, fifth will be enough for us to retain our Champions League status for next season.
If we round up our projected tally to 60, that'd be 22 more points than we earned last season, which was our worst performance in Premier League history. Still, a 60-point haul would match 2022/23, when we finished eighth, and would rank as our joint-third-lowest tally since 2009/10.
That may be somewhat underwhelming, but our projected position in the table is rosy, and the author notes that data models are typically conservative. The real nightmare is the team slated to win it all. Those set-piece merchants (I know I'm throwing stones from a glass house) from down the road are four points clear at the summit, and ESPN fancies them to win their first league title in over 20 years.
Arsenal are predicted to end 2025/26 with jusy shy of 80 points, with second-place Manchester City well behind with 68.6. However, those tallies may have since condensed, with the Gunners drawing at Sunderland and City thumping Liverpool after these projections were made.
Nevertheless, there's no denying that our fiercest rivals are in an excellent position to win the lot. Their evolution under Mikel Arteta is... impressive. God, that was hard to say. We've got to accept that Arsenal could end up lifting the Premier League title in May. I was too young to remember "WILTORD!!!" or the ’Invincibles' winning it at the Lane, and I've lapped up their recent knack for failing to leap over the final hurdle.
A dystopian world in north London can only manifest if Arteta completes his rebuild with the ultimate domestic prize. I couldn't enjoy a Dexter Cheesburger at The Plimsoll, nor gulp a Mahou in mid-July outside The Compton Arms and lament my decision-making while waiting for an Uber in the uncomfortable vicinity of The BlackStock.
Encountering a Gooner couldn't be an option.