With around twenty percent of the season in the books, the delusions of grandeur following Thomas Frank's early season successes have withered like autumn leaves. Tottenham players and supporters have received a sobering reminder that the Premier League is as unforgiving a competition as the Champions League. Teams that lack quality and consistency in all phases of the game are in danger of being punished every match.
Whether Frank's first 11 matches, excluding Doncaster, are evaluated analytically or from the trusty old eye test, Tottenham have thus far been objectively uninspiring on the pitch and fortunate to have lost only two matches. Spurs' current leading scorer is the scrappy "own goal." They are ranked 14th in the Premier League in expected goals at 1.03 per game, squeezed between Nottingham Forest and Fulham. And while they are ranked fifth in expected goals conceded at 1.13, the numbers suggest Guglielmo Vicario, a punching bag for criticism this season, is responsible for keeping them in the top half of the table.
Thomas Frank deserves credit for making the team tough to beat. He has infused the squad with a defensive-minded approach and shown faith in his backline to get the team over the line when the attack has been torpid and profligate, not unlike Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal squad. But too often have Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, and company been forced to bail out a sputtering offense, and the cracks are beginning to emerge as injuries once again rear their ugly head.
Spurs have won just one of their last five matches while playing teams they must beat if they are to have any hope of finishing in the top four in the Premier League or in the top eight of the Champions League league phase. Instead of creating separation between themselves and mid-table sides, they are losing ground in both competitions as they prepare for their most difficult month of football this season.
Between October 29 and November 29, Spurs face Newcastle, Chelsea, FC Copenhagen, Manchester United, Arsenal, and PSG. The sobering reality is that they could easily fail to take six points from their next six matches, which would likely leave them in the bottom half of the Premier League and out of contention for a place in the knockout phase of the Champions League.
Frank has ten weeks to find his best starting eleven. But even if the team finishes the calendar year on a high, a series of lackluster performances during the last month have made it clear that Johan Lange and Fabio Paratici need to address deficiencies at several positions during the winter transfer window.
Striker
With Dominic Solanke poised to return from injury, Randal Kolo Muani settling into life in the Premier League, and rumors of Harry Kane’s triumphant return to Tottenham next summer, it is improbable that Spurs sign Ivan Toney or any other striker this winter. They will likely take the next seven months to evaluate their current options and decide the futures of Richarlison and Kolo Muani before they make any drastic changes.
Wingers
Wilson Odobert has shown dramatic improvement over the past few weeks, as has Mathys Tel, but neither has established themself as the starting left winger like Mohammed Kudus has on the right of the attack. If Son Heung-min were to return for the second half of the season, he would give Frank a proven goal scorer and leader without stunting the growth of two promising young players who need trust and game time. A move for Antoine Semenyo or Maghnes Akliouche won’t happen until next summer.
Attacking Midfield
Xavi Simons has yet to set the Premier League alight, and Lucas Bergvall is better as a number eight at the moment. But with Dejan Kulusevski nearing his return from injury, James Maddison a few months behind him, and Mohammed Kudus capable of playing through the middle, this is a position that seems adequately covered.
Central Midfield
Spurs currently have six players to fill two midfield positions. Joao Palhinha seems destined to sign a permanent deal next summer, while Archie Gray, Lucas Bergvall, and Pape Matar Sarr are expected to be the core of the midfield for years to come. There is speculation that Rodrigo Bentancur will extend his contract. The odd man out is Yves Bissouma, who is the most likely player to depart this winter. He is in the last year of his contract, and the club would have preferred that he left last summer, so it wouldn't come as a surprise if Frank were to replace him with an attacking-minded central midfielder.
Defense
Many were disappointed that Spurs didn’t sign another left back over the summer, but the emergence of Djed Spence left no room in the squad. The injury to Destiny Udogie may cause the hierarchy to re-evaluate their options. Spurs would benefit greatly from another defender, preferably one who is comfortable playing on the right. Pedro Porro is being run into the ground, and if he were to get injured Spurs could suddenly find themselves dangerously thin.
Central Defense
The thought of losing Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, or Kevin Danso to a long-term injury must give Frank night sweats. But Radu Dragusin is back training with the first team, and there is reportedly a clause in Luka Vuskovic's loan deal that Spurs could use to recall him from Hamburg FC in January. Plus, we’re all still waiting to see what the mysterious Kota Takai can do on the pitch.
Goalkeeper
Guglielmo Vicario divides the fanbase like no other Spurs player, despite boasting some of the best statistics of any goalkeeper in the Premier League. Although his distribution is suspect and he is shaky on crosses, he has single-handedly saved the team in several matches and he is a natural leader. Worrying reports have emerged from Hotspur Way that Antonin Kinsky may have regressed in the last year. Even if that is the case, it would be criminally premature to write off a 22-year-old goalkeeper who has shown real promise in the limited opportunities he has been offered.
Prediction
Spurs will sign no more than three players during the winter transfer window. They will be active in the market for a left winger, but probably won’t pull the trigger. Instead, they will look to add depth in defense and seek to replace Yves Bissouma with an experienced player who plays further up the pitch. All other needs will be addressed next summer.