3 biggest keys to victory for Tottenham vs. Arsenal

Tottenham haven't won a Premier League game at the Emirates since 2010.
Tottenham have had little success at the Emirates over the past two decades.
Tottenham have had little success at the Emirates over the past two decades. | BEN STANSALL/GettyImages

Anyone who says they enjoy North London Derby day is either a sociopath or a liar. It's typically a nerve-inducing and wretched experience.

Tottenham are travelling to the Emirates on Sunday, aiming to secure their first Premier League win on Arsenal's turf since 2010, when Rafael van der Vaart and Gareth Bale inspired a come-from-behind 3-2 victory, capped off by Younes Kaboul.

The Lilywhites so often shrink when travelling down Seven Sisters Road, and some would argue that we haven't encountered a Gunners team so strong in all phases since they moved into their new home 19 years ago. However, they, like us, are dealing with an array of injuries, and there is scope for the visitors, with Thomas Frank leading the way, to earn a positive result and potentially condense Arsenal's lead at the summit.

Here are the three biggest keys to a rare Tottenham victory at the Emirates this weekend.


1. Score first

Mathys Tel, Wilson Odobert
The first goal is likely to be key in Sunday's derby, despite history suggesting otherwise. | Alex Pantling/GettyImages

In previous previews to north London derbies, I'd actively encourage Spurs to avoid scoring the first goal. This fixture has a weird knack of facilitating turnarounds, and we fell foul to opening the scoring at the Emirates last season. By half-time, Arsenal were 2-1 ahead, and they failed to relinquish that advantage in the second half.

There's evidence to suggest that conceding first is far from fatal in the derby, but this time around, the opening goal feels significant.

Arsenal have scored first in seven of their 11 Premier League games this season, winning all seven, while Spurs have won five of the six in which they've broken the deadlock. While Frank's side have fought back to earn results against Wolves, Bodø/Glimt and Manchester United, we've often appeared toothless when chasing a result.

Frank's current model, which I'd say is still rather primitive and in need of evolution, works far more efficiently when we've taken the lead. We're not yet a side that can control and suffocate, with transitions and making the most of 'moments' in attack our current modus operandi. Arsenal's defence is outstanding, and it'll be incredibly hard for this Tottenham team, given Frank's framework and the long list of injuries, to claw their way back into the game after falling behind.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have sought to alleviate their issues against deep-lying defences this season and thus have been able to grind out results in fixtures they've previously struggled with. However, Eberechi Eze hasn't been the needle-mover some thought he'd be, and Viktor Gyökeres could miss out through injury.

The Gunners team that suits up on Sunday may not be best equipped for chasing the game. Usually, breaking the game open through a set-piece allows them to settle into a rhythm.


2. Healthy balance without the ball

Thomas Frank
A cunning Frank game must come to the fore. | Eddie Keogh/GettyImages

Entering the start of the Premier League season, there was an expectation that Frank's Tottenham would be a nightmare for the division's best. His Brentford teams were a nightmare to play against, and our performance in the UEFA Super Cup only emboldened projections that Spurs would be plucky opponents for the division's aristocracy.

While we fell flat at home to Chelsea (when do we not?), Frank has already overseen an impressive 2-0 victory at Manchester City. At the Etihad, and against PSG, a balanced plan without possession was key to our success. We went man-to-man high up the pitch to ensure every build-up sequence was an ordeal, but were also disciplined when our press was compromised, sinking into a rigid mid-to-low block structure.

The configurations were different (Frank went for a back five in the Super Cup) and I'm not going to get too hung up about formations on Sunday. It's the principles and overriding idea which are key.

Arsenal are excellent in the build-up; patient and fluid. However, we can't let them pass all over us on Sunday. Sitting deep from the outset would be setting us up for failure, as it'd allow Arsenal to assert their authority for 90 minutes, dominate territorially and likely have the chance to put umpteen deliveries into the box from set-pieces. It'd be risky, even if I think Arsenal's personnel may struggle to penetrate a deep-lying defence.

I think we've got to be brave out of possession, with rigid man-orientation tough to execute against this Gunners side, but ultimately the ploy which holds the key to us gaining a foothold in the contest. We, too, are likely going to be reliant upon set-pieces, and territory is key to creating such situations.


3. Exploit key absences

Gabriel
Arsenal's leader in defence will be absent. | George Wood/GettyImages

Spurs have plenty out, but Mikel Arteta's optimism regarding the potential returns of multiple attackers was seemingly misplaced. They're likely without Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Martin Ødegaard, Noni Madueke and Gyökeres this weekend.

Gabriel is also out after sustaining a thigh injury on international duty, and while Arteta has depth in abundance, including a range of centre-back alternatives, there's no overlooking the significance of the Brazilian's absence. Since Gabriel joined the club in 2020, Arsenal's Premier League win rate when he plays is 64.3%. When he doesn't, that drops to 40%.

The former Lille star has developed into one of Europe's best defenders, and his partnership with William Saliba has been key to their rise under Arteta. He's a dominant force in both boxes, with Arsenal losing their primary set-piece threat and best box defender.

Typically, Gabriel is the man who breaks a tight and cagey contest open with a header, then shuns the opposition late on with frustratingly impressive body-on-the-line defending. He's the leader of Arsenal's defence without donning the armband, and the Gunners will feel his absence this weekend.

In his place, Piero Hincapié, Riccardo Calafiori, or Cristhian Mosquera will fill the void. Fine replacements, they're certainly not calling up a Radu Drăgușin or Archie Gray equivalent, but the reshuffle down the left does render that side vulnerable. Mohammed Kudus must be fit, and I'd also be testing that flank with plenty of half-space runs from midfield when such opportunities arise.


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