The tiebreaker Tottenham has turned on its head in recent surge
By Gary Pearson
Arsenal’s last seven games — 9 Goals For, 10 Goals Against
The Gunners have lost three of their last seven and two on the bounce, coughing up fourth spot in the process. At the same time Spurs had a -1 goal differential, Arsenal were +10, 11 goals better off than Conte’s side.
Outscored 5-1 in their recent two fixtures (3-0 away loss to Palace and 2-1 home defeat to Brighton), Arsenal have a lot of work to do if they are turn around their current 10-goal deficit.
Coincidentally, Tottenham have seven matches remaining, the same number in which this sample size is based. Arsenal have eight matches remaining, one more than Spurs.
Manchester United’s last seven games — 11 Goals For, 10 Goals Against
Manchester United, like Arsenal, has slipped significantly, both in the table and in goal differential. United have lost two and drawn two in their last seven, ever so slightly improving their goal difference in the process.
Less than two months ago, United had a goal differential of +6. Their ever-so slight improvement is not, considering how rampant Spurs have been, seen as such.
West Ham’s last seven games — 7 Goals For, 9 Goals Against
Rounding out the four competing for fourth spot is West Ham, who, like Arsenal and United, have endured a similar regression. Their goal difference has dropped from +11 to +9 in less than two months, putting David Moyes’ side 10 goals worse off than Spurs.
West Ham has suffered three defeats and a draw in their last seven games, the worst run of any team vying for a Champions League berth.
Goal difference in the last seven matches has correlated directly to form, reinforcing Tottenham’s dominance since the end of February.
Three of the four teams have stagnated, while Conte’s men have risen to the challenge, even after suffering defeat to United, a loss that, at the time, was thought of as potentially terminal.
It just shows you what can happen in a matter of weeks in the Premier League. Let’s hope the remaining six weeks of the season continues on the current trajectory.