Arsenal loss spurs Tottenham hopes of a top four finish

A 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace is something Tottenham knows a thing or two about, but on Monday, it was Arsenal falling to the Eagles, enlivening Spurs’ top-four hopes.

Tottenham Hotspur did their part Sunday in a 5-1 shellacking of Newcastle, leaving Spurs above Arsenal on goal difference. Then on Monday, Patrick Viera’s determined team came to play and thrashed an out of sorts Gunner side 3-0. With the loss increasing Spurs’ marginal hold on fourth place, Tottenham’s chances rise.

The loss brings Tottenham closer to the top four

Before the weekend started, analytics site FiveThirtyEight.com had Tottenham with a puncher’s chance at reaching the top four at 25%. Arsenal had a 67% chance, while Manchester United had an 8% chance, and no other team had a higher than 1% shot at finishing in fourth place – sorry, West Ham and Wolves.

Now that the weekend’s games are behind us, things have shifted slightly. West Ham is back in the picture, with a 2% shot, mainly at Manchester United’s expense. The Hammers won, while United drew, leaving Manchester with a slim 5% shot at fourth place.

The big movers were, of course, Tottenham and Arsenal. The Gunners’ loss to Palace cost Arsenal 15% as their odds dropped to 52% to qualify for the Champions League, and Tottenham went up 19 percentage points from 25% to now having a 44% chance of qualifying for the UCL.

This extra one percent came from Chelsea, who still has a 97% chance of qualifying for the Champions League and an 85% chance of finishing third.

Point predictions are getting closer

The growing percentage chance of finishing in a Champions League spot is good, but more promising for Spurs is the number of points that likely will be required to finish fourth.

Before their loss to Palace, FiveThirtyEight was projecting Arsenal to reach 71 points; however, following the defeat, the computer has Arsenal finishing at 69 points. A lower point total for Arsenal is significant. It is especially significant Spurs projected total of 68 had not changed but is closer to the mark to beat than when Arsenal was finishing at 71.

Ultimately, 68 is not likely to be enough points to finish fourth; however, a target of 70 is much more realistic than 72. To reach 70 points, Spurs need to gain 16 from their final 24 available, which provides slightly more wiggle room than getting 18 from 24, particularly knowing that one of those matches is against Liverpool.

If we have learned anything over the matchday, it was that this race still has several twists and turns in the matches ahead; and maybe, just maybe, Tottenham is prepared for it.