Analytics favours Arsenal over Tottenham in top four race

As the 2021-22 Premier League season hits the home stretch over the next seven-plus weeks, the computers give Tottenham a shot at the top four, but Arsenal has a better one. 

Seemingly finding some form under Antonio Conte, having won consecutive matches for the first time since new year’s day before the break, Tottenham Hotspur is legitimately in the top four race. Outside of the top three teams – who all have a greater than 99% chance of making the top four – Tottenham has a better shot, according to the analytics site FiveThirtyEight.com to take fourth place and the final Champions League position than everyone but Arsenal.

Tottenham has a shot

At this point, FiveThirtyEight’s analytics engine algorithms are starting to like Tottenham. Spurs’ overall Soccer Performance Index score is over 80, and Tottenham is ranked 12 according to their global metrics. Only Liverpool and Manchester City have a higher offensive rating in the league than Spurs, and their defensive rating is improving.

Although the club has a nearly 25% chance of finishing fourth, fifth place is the most likely finish, with Spurs holding a 48% chance of finishing fifth. An no under no scenario – absent a team being suspended from UEFA competitions completely – would fifth place qualify for the Champions League.

The truth is, Tottenham is so close that if they can beat Newcastle on Sunday, Spurs will be level with Arsenal for at least 24 hours. Despite this closeness, the analytics predict Spurs will only take 16 points from their final 27 available, which would not be enough to catch Arsenal, the team most likely to take fourth.

Gunners with the inside track

Arsenal is in a great spot to take fourth place with a three-point lead and a game in hand. Currently, on 54 points, the Gunners are projected to take a further 17 from those final ten games – finishing four points ahead of Tottenham.

The analytics have neither Spurs nor Arsenal finishing strong; it is enough to take fourth and fifth place. If Arsenal does get to the projected 71 points, it will be difficult for Spurs to beat that. Tottenham has 27 points available, and it would take 20 to tie and 21 to exceed 71 points.

Arsenal’s game in hand is against Chelsea, and Spurs will still host the Gunners on a yet to be determined weekday between now and the end of May.

Depending on how things go, that head-to-head game will be critical in determining the outcome of the race for fourth. If Spurs win, they have a legitimate chance of catching Arsenal, and if the Gunners prevail, Tottenham would have little chance of taking fourth. The numbers say Spurs have a chance; the play on the field will determine just how much.