Tottenham: Handicapping the teams in the Premier League top-four race

Handicapping Tottenham and the top-four race

In theory, any of the four teams can secure a top-four finish; however, the games played leave Arsenal and Tottenham the more likely teams to finish fourth, although the Hammers and Red Devils still have a chance.

West Ham’s Chances

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Hammers only have a three percent chance of taking fourth, but if you ask any West Ham fan, they are in the thick of the race. Ahead of Tottenham on goal difference, West Ham has played two more games than Spurs and has only ten games remaining.

Of those 10, half are against teams in the top half of the table, including two London derbies at Tottenham and Chelsea. The Hammers also host Arsenal, Manchester City, and Aston Villa.

These match-ups make for a demanding schedule for West Ham, as will matches against Burnley and Everton, with both fighting for their Premier League lives. The chances are slim for the Hammers, but a couple of upset victories and taking care of business could give West Ham another season in Europe.

Manchester United’s Chances

If you listen to the mainstream media, Manchester United players are just a step away from gutting each other. In reality, United has suffered from the same kind of inconsistencies that have plagued Spurs all season. However, they are still in the race.

Like the Hammers, Manchester United only has ten games left to play, with the next two being critical to their chances. First, the Red Devils host Spurs on Saturday and then they travel to Liverpool the following weekend. If United wins both of those contests, a three-match run against Leicester City, Everton, and Norwich could leave Manchester sitting pretty.

Of course if United loses to both Tottenham and Liverpool, where they finish the season could be much lower than acceptable at the club. With a trip to Arsenal and a match-up against Chelsea still on the horizon, United does not have a cakewalk finish. However, the significance of those final matches may be determined over the next two weekends.

Arsenal’s Chances

The Gunners are very much in the driver’s seat for finishing fourth. Arsenal has the most points (48), the best goal difference (+12), and has played the fewest games (25). Then again, those two games in hand are London derbies against Tottenham and Chelsea, so anything can happen.

Beyond those yet-to-be-scheduled derbies, Arsenal has a difficult schedule with five matches against top-half sides, not including the games in hand. The Gunners travel to Villa, Southampton, and across London to face the Hammers and games at home against United and Liverpool.

Despite that tough schedule, according to FiveThirtyEight, the Gunners will be favoured in every match except the one against Liverpool. If the odds hold, then Arsenal may be difficult to catch, especially on goal difference.

Tottenham’s Chances

In looking at the schedules, Tottenham does have a good chance of making a run. With 12 matches left to play, Spurs only play four top-half sides. Seemingly positive, the team’s struggles with deep defending teams may alter reality a bit. Regardless, Spurs will be favoured in 10 of their 12 remaining games, with only United and Liverpool more likely to win than Spurs.

With games against all three teams in front of them, Spurs can control their destiny in many ways by winning those matches, along with the ones they should. The April run of Newcastle, Villa, Brighton, and Brentford will be huge, as will the north London derby, whenever it is rescheduled. Likely, it will be the winner of that north London derby who takes all.