Analytics still has Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League top-four race

Buoyed from three straight wins in Premier League play, Tottenham Hotspur is still in the top four race, although the margin for error is small for Spurs. 

It may seem hard to believe, with the disappointing loss to Middlesbrough in the FA Cup sandwiched in between, Tottenham Hotspur has won two straight in league play by a combined score of 9-0.

Spurs’ followed a four-nil win at Leeds by thrashing Everton 5-0 in north London. Those two wins have propelled Tottenham back into the thick of the top four race, although they are still on the outside looking in. So where do Spurs sit, and what are their odds?

Tottenham is seventh but still has games in hand

Except for Arsenal – who could be the biggest thorn of them in all in Tottenham’s side – Spurs have played fewer games than every team above them. Even though they are even on points with West Ham – but behind on goal difference – Spurs have played two fewer games than the Hammers.

The same is valid with Manchester United, who sit two points ahead of Spurs. United have played two more games than Tottenham but will be behind Spurs in the table if the Lilywhites can win at Old Trafford on Saturday.

The same is true of games in hand on the teams chasing Tottenham. Realistically only Wolverhampton has a chance to catch Tottenham, and the Wolves are only two points behind Spurs but have played two more games than have the Lilywhites. In ninth, Aston Villa is nine points back, having played one more. If Spurs are worried about Villa in the table, something has gone wrong.

Ultimately, Arsenal is the biggest threat to Tottenham claiming a spot in the top four, as Conte has targeted for the squad.

Analytics show Gunners have the inside track

Overcoming a slow start, Arsenal has won four on the bounce and now sits three points in front of Tottenham with a game in hand. Of course, there is still a north London derby to play, which would allow Spurs to catch the Gunners, but Arsenal still has that extra game, even if that game is against Chelsea.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Arsenal has the best chance of any team outside the top three of making the top four and is the most likely team to finish fourth. While the Gunners only have a seven percent chance of catching Chelsea and finishing third, the analytics website has Arsenal with a 53% chance of finishing fourth.

Tottenham is next in the list with a 26% chance of making the top four and a 25% chance of finishing fourth. One in four is not bad, but a 50/50 proposition is much better. The real issue is that Arsenal is gaining points at a rate that could make that difficult to catch.

FiveThirtyEight has Arsenal finishing with 69 points, which is 24 more than Spurs have now. Taking 24 points from the available 36 is not impossible for Tottenham, as described here, but also means Spurs need to consistently earn points, which the team has struggled with so far in 2022.

Ultimately, for Spurs to take fourth, they must win, starting with Saturday against Manchester United.