What Tottenham Hotspur needs to do to finish fourth place
By Gary Pearson
Tottenham is embroiled in the fight of their lives against a few deep-seated rivals, so how can Antonio Conte’s side snatch fourth place and earn a berth in next season’s Champions League?
Conte has set his sights on the top four, though he knows Tottenham have an uphill battle ahead if they’re going to secure the coveted league position. Spurs, who have played one more match than their bitter north London rivals, are three points behind Arsenal.
This weekend Arsenal host Leicester while Spurs travel to Old Trafford for a titanic contest against Manchester United, who are two points clear of Conte’s side but have played two additional matches.
With 12 matches to play, the looming question is how many points will Tottenham need to pip Arsenal, United and West Ham.
I think we can all agree that Spurs must beat Arsenal at home whenever that match is played. The Premier League is yet to confirm the time and date of the rescheduled match.
Spurs must also not lose this weekend at Old Trafford. A share of the spoils, while not the ideal outcome, would keep Tottenham within striking distance of Arsenal, who are almost certain to beat a Leicester side that rarely plays well away from home.
How many points does Tottenham need to secure fourth?
So let’s say Tottenham leaves Old Trafford with a point. Hopefully they can somehow find a way to take all three, but a point ensures Tottenham are in the mix.
Spurs would be four points adrift of the Gunners with 11 matches to play. With a favourable remaining schedule, Conte will expect his side to almost run the table. It’s the only chance Tottenham have of obtaining fourth place.
Which means Spurs will have to go on a run akin to their nine-match unbeaten streak when Conte took charge. That’s certainly not impossible, but it will take a level of consistency that has recently eluded Spurs. However, Eric Dier is fit, healthy and Sergio Reguilon is also showing signs of returning to full match fitness.
Dejan Kulusevski is adapting well to life in the top flight while Harry Kane has returned to the best version of himself. So anything is possible.
Tottenham must take all three points against West Ham at home in the crucial tilt on March 20.
Conte’s side has three potentially tricky fixtures remaining against teams battling for their Premier League lives, including a trip to Brentford followed by a home test against Burnley in the penultimate match. The final match of the campaign sees Tottenham travel to Norwich.
But hopefully — and the way things are looking — Norwich’s fate will already be sealed by then. Otherwise the occasion will be particularly challenging for Conte’s men.
Few people expect Tottenham to take anything from Anfield on May 7, but you never know when Conte is involved. He has a knack for making life difficult for elite sides, as shown by Spurs historic victory at the Etihad a few weeks back.
The away match at Aston Villa on April 9 could also prove tricky, as Steven Gerrard’s side are brimming with confidence and playing some excellent football. If they take a point from Villa, Tottenham would secure 29 points from a possible 36 after losing to Liverpool and drawing United and Villa.
In that scenario, Spurs would finish with 74 points. That means Arsenal can secure just 25 more points — unless Spurs erase the Gunners’ four-goal advantage — from their remaining 13 matches.
For that to happen, Arsenal must lose against Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool. They can only draw United at home, draw West Ham away and must fail to beat Villa on the road. Not exactly the ideal forecast, but there is still hope.
Conte right to set top four target. dark. Next
And that’s without considering United or West Ham as likely suitors for fourth. United, with only 10 matches remaining, will have to run the table and West Ham are considered outsiders, though we all know nothing is certain in the Premier League.
Tottenham’s remaining schedule and required/predicted results
Date To Be Confirmed
Opponent: Arsenal
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Required Result: Win
Saturday 12 March 2022
Opponent: Man Utd
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester
Predicted Result: Draw
Wednesday 16 March 2022
Opponent: Brighton
Venue: Amex Stadium, Falmer
Required Result: Win
Sunday 20 March 2022
Opponent: West Ham
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Required Result: Win
Sunday 3 April 2022
Opponent: Newcastle
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Required Result: Win
Saturday 9 April 2022
Opponent: Aston Villa
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham
Predicted Result: Draw
Saturday 16 April 2022
Opponent: Brighton
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Required Result: Win
Saturday 23 April 2022
Opponent: Brentford
Venue: Brentford Community Stadium, Brentford
Required Result: Win
Saturday 30 April 2022
Opponent: Leicester
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Required Result: Win
Saturday 7 May 2022
Opponent: Liverpool
Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
Predicted Result: Loss
Sunday 15 May 2022
Opponent: Burnley
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Required Result: Win
Sunday 22 May 2022
Opponent: Norwich
Venue: Carrow Road, Norwich
Required Result: Win