Tottenham’s success under Conte largely determined by one key variable

Tottenham’s success under Antonio Conte has thus far been largely determined by one key variable, having Oliver Skipp, Pierre Hojbjerg and Eric Dier in the same starting 11. 

The aforementioned trio played together in 67 percent (four out of six) of Conte’s Premier League wins as Tottenham manager. The gaffer’s other two wins, secured minus at least one member of the trio, weren’t exactly comfortable, both of which occurring in come-from-behind fashion.

The first, in which Skipp didn’t play, was Conte’s inaugural win in charge, a 2-1 home triumph over Leeds. Everyone will poignantly recall the second, as it included two Steven Bergwijn stoppage time goals away at Leicester.  

Neither win was decisive and both involved multiple defensive mishaps.

Compare that to Tottenham’s wins with Skipp, Hojbjerg and Dier safeguarding the most important area of the pitch. The trio have started five top flight matches together since Conte took the helm, four resulting in victory. The other, Conte’s first match in charge, a 0-0 stalemate at Goodison Park.

Tottenham’s dominance with Skipp, Hojbjerg and Dier in same team

Tottenham outscored their opponents 9-0 in those four wins. When the trio is intact, Tottenham, in five matches, has yet to concede a goal. Whether you believe in Skipp, Hojbjerg and Dier’s on-pitch dominance as a collective is moot as the statistic speaks for itself.

Spurs beat Brentford 2-0, had their way with Norwich 3-0, defeated Crystal Palace 3-0 and narrowly escaped Watford with a 1-0 win. Admittedly, the four wins came against teams deemed as inferior, at least on paper.

But it doesn’t change the fact that Spurs have struggled mightily without their preferred trio protecting the centre of the park. In seven matches without at least one of the triumvirate, Spurs have managed two wins, taking just eight points from a possible 21.

There is a lot of talk about Conte’s 3-4-3 formation and the potential need for an alteration in setup. That argument has merit, even more so if one of Dier, Hojbjerg and Skipp cannot, for any reason, start.

If one of the trio is missing, Conte should think long and hard before proceeding with his preferred 3-4-3 formation. It’s clear Tottenham’s success with that formation, for now anyway, is predicated on having all three on the pitch at the same time.

On the positive side of things, it’s an incredibly encouraging sign knowing that Tottenham, once Dier and Skipp return, will be totally impenetrable. How long that lasts is anyone’s guess, but based on their previous five encounters together, I wouldn’t bet against it persisting at least a few matches more.

Unless the trio is reunited against Manchester City at the Etihad on Saturday. In that case, all bets are off.