The little number that could cost Tottenham a top four finish

By Aaron Coe | Feb 12, 2022

Tottenham Hotspur's French goalkeeper Hugo Lloris gestures during the English Premier League football match between Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, on February 9, 2022. - - RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. (Photo by Glyn KIRK / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. (Photo by GLYN KIRK/AFP via Getty Images) /

The loss to Southampton diminished the margin for error to make the top four; however, Tottenham may have more significant problems with a smaller number.

Tottenham Hotspur still has a better chance than most to finish in the top four this season. However, conceding a further three goals means the goal difference for Spurs continues to go down, which may ultimately cost Tottenham big time in the table.

Arsenal is ahead of Tottenham, and goals matter

Yes, Spurs have a game in hand, but unless Tottenham beats Burnley by eight goals – the current goal difference difference between Spurs and the Gunners – the three points still leave the Lilywhites behind their north London rivals.

Currently with just a +1 goal differential, Spurs have the eighth-best goal differential in the league and are well behind the top three, who are at all at +30 or better. Only two teams have finished in European positions in the last ten seasons with a single-digit goal difference.

In 2011/12, Newcastle finished 5th with a +5 difference and in 2013/14, Spurs finished 5th with a +4 differential. The point here is that typically the teams finishing in the league’s upper echelons have a big goal difference, and it may matter in the end.

Goal difference can be a deciding factor for Tottenham

Tottenham only has to look back to the 2019/20 season to know how vital goal difference can be. That season both Spurs and Wolverhampton finished on 59 points, but Tottenham’s +14 goal difference was three better than Wolves’ +11, earning them a spot in Europe.

That same season Manchester United pipped Chelsea for third when their +30 goal differential swamped the Blues +15 after both teams finished with 66 points.

Going back a bit further in 2015/16, Manchester City used their +30 goal differential to edge out Manchester United (+14) for fourth place and a spot in the Champions League.

Maybe Tottenham wins all their games in hand, beats Arsenal head-to-head and earns enough points to take a top-four spot without worrying about tiebreakers.

However, when the teams are as tight as they are in the race for the top four, sometimes tiebreakers mean a lot, and right now, Spurs’ first tiebreaker stinks and that little number could prove decisive in their quest for a top four spot.

Next. Tottenham top four hopes dented not doomed. dark

Home/Tottenham News