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Tottenham Hotspur is still a top four favorite despite loss to Chelsea

By Aaron Coe

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 08: Emile Smith Rowe of Arsenal gets past Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Oliver Skipp of Tottenham Hotspur Hotspur during the Pre-season friendly between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on August 08, 2021 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 08: Emile Smith Rowe of Arsenal gets past Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Oliver Skipp of Tottenham Hotspur Hotspur during the Pre-season friendly between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on August 08, 2021 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) /
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Although Tottenham currently sits seventh in the Premier League table following their loss to Chelsea, Spurs are still favoured to finish in the top four. 

Tottenham Hotspur missed out on a big opportunity on Sunday against Chelsea. If Spurs had beaten the Blues they would have been back in the top four for only the second time this season.  Despite having spent only 1 week in the top four and coming off a disappointing 2-0 loss to Chelsea Spurs are still the favorites to finish in fourth.

Tottenham is one of many seeking top four

After matchday 23, there appears to be a five-team race developing for the coveted fourth and final Champions League invitation, which comes with finishing in fourth in the league table.  Manchester United is the team currently sitting in fourth with 38 points and a +6 goal difference.

Although United is seemingly in the pole position as the current fourth-place team, according to the algorithm over at FiveThirtyEight, the Red Devils are most likely to finish sixth and have just an 18% chance of finishing in the top four.

That 18% is better than the chances that West Ham has. The Hammers are currently in fifth place but have played 23 games, more than any of the five teams vying for that fourth-place finish. Those extra games are costly in the numbers for West Ham, who actually have a better chance of slipping down the table to 10th – 10% – than they do landing in fourth – 7%.

The dark horse in the five-team race is Wolverhampton, as Wolves are currently 8th, just two points back of both Arsenal and Tottenham. And while Spurs may have a game in hand on the Wolves, Arsenal does not. The Wolves still have a 4% chance of landing that final Champions League place, which is not much but is something to hang on to. As is the 2% chance Brighton is given and the 1% Leicester City has.

Brighton and Leicester turn the scramble into a seven-team battle, however, according to the computers, only two really have a good chance, Tottenham, and Arsenal.

Spurs and Arsenal likely to battle to the end

It seems very possible that the seven-team battle Leicester and Brighton are holding onto hope for is more likely than not going to turn into just a two or three-team battle. While the League may give United every chance to stay in the top four race more likely, the two teams from north London are going to battle it out for the final Champions League position.

Arsenal is currently ahead of Tottenham in the table on goal difference, with both teams sitting on 36 points. Both are behind United and the Hammers but both have games in hand on those teams, which in theory makes up the difference.

It is in that theory of taking three points from a game in hand that the computer seems to love and as a result, Tottenham and Arsenal are the two front-runners for that last Champions League place.

Arsenal has a 34% chance and Spurs have a 39% chance to finish in the top four. For both teams, fourth is the most often predicted finishing position but only one can ultimately finish there and the algorithm currently has Spurs taking it with 65 total points to 64 for Arsenal.

There is a lot of the season left so these predictions do not mean that much but it should give us all hope that Spurs are in the race to stay.

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