What to expect in first leg of Tottenham Carabao Cup semifinal at Chelsea

Both managers will start full strength lineups as Tottenham travel to Chelsea in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semifinal, presenting an intriguing matchup between bitter London rivals. 

There is a chance Antonio Conte will tinker with his starting lineup, but, considering what is at stake, we doubt it. There is also a chance Harry Winks comes in to give Oliver Skipp a rest.

However, Conte will almost assuredly start his best team, particularly with a date with Morecambe FC in the FA Cup on Sunday. That is the fixture Conte will have circled on his calendar to provide some fringe players with the opportunity to impress.

So as these London rivals get set to go to war on Wednesday, what should we expect from the first of two legs?

Chelsea’s possession ball can benefit Tottenham

Chelsea loves controlling possession. They have the third best possession numbers in the top flight, holding the ball 59 percent of each match. You don’t win any prizes for correctly guessing the only two teams who possess the ball more.

Manchester City (67.5 percent) and Liverpool (62 percent) are the only two other sides that dominate the ball more.

This could work out well for Spurs, who’ve struggled mightily lately against teams that employ a park-the-bus strategy. Conte’s side dominated the ball against both Watford (74 percent) and Southampton (65 percent), but were unable to make their time on the ball count.

The script for tomorrow’s match at Stamford Bridge will invariably flip, as Chelsea should boss the ball. That scenario, if organized and well drilled, will benefit Spurs, who, by way of their lethal counter, should get chances to hit Chelsea on the break.

Sergio Reguilon and Emerson Royal will find it entirely more difficult to get forward, so Tottenham will have to rely on lightning-quick counters orchestrated by the triumvirate of Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Lucas Moura, the latter of whom will be expected to forge forward quickly and fearlessly when the opportunity presents itself.

Conte will be poised to ensure his side leaves Stamford Bridge with an opportunity to win the tie at home in next week’s second leg. However, Conte will not want his side to play tentatively or overly cautious. There’s a distinct difference between overly cautious play and allowing the opposition to dominate the ball. You can have the latter without the former.

Look for a counter-attacking masterclass as Tottenham put themselves in a strong spot for the return leg. Conte will be content with a low-scoring draw, and ecstatic if his side are able to pull out a 1-0 or 2-1 win in enemy territory.