Analytics quantifies Conte’s impact on Tottenham in the EPL top four race

The impact of Antonio Conte on Tottenham Hotspur is obvious to anyone who watches Tottenham play, it is also obvious in the analytics around Spurs. 

Antonio Conte was appointed manager of Tottenham Hotspur on November 2, just three days after Spurs were spanked 0-3 at home to Manchester United. One day later on November 3, FiveThirtyEight, the renowned analytics firm, released their updated Premier League predictions and things did not look good for Tottenham.

Tottenham was average and falling by the numbers

Despite a three-game winning streak to start the season, goals were being conceded far faster than they were being scored and things were going in the wrong direction. Tottenham had fallen from first after matchday three to ninth after matchday 10.

It was a precipitous fall, which saw Spurs outscored by 10 goals over seven games, ultimately leading to Nuno Espirito Santo’s demise as Tottenham coach and the hiring of Antonio Conte.

At that point, Spurs were ninth in the league and ranked eighth according to the November 3, FiveThirtyEight projections. Tottenham had a 73.5 Soccer Power Index (SPI), was rated 2.0 offensively and .8 defensively.

For comparison Arsenal was sixth in both the league and the rankings with an SPI of 77.5 and a 2.1 and 0.6 offensive and defensive rating.

What those rankings also showed was Tottenham had a better chance of being relegated, 3% than winning the league, which was at less than 1%. In fairness, 14 teams had a percentage greater than one to be relegated, but six did not. As for the odds of making the top four and qualifying for the Champions League, they were a wishful 8%, the same chance Leicester City had at the time and a two-percent worse chance than did all-powerful Brighton.

All this was back on November 3, just one day after Conte’s hiring, now the numbers, tell a different tale.

Tottenham rising up the algorithm’s rankings

The change in Tottenham since Conte’s arrival is something tangible. We have seen it with our eyes on the field, in the players, and in the standings, where Tottenham has climbed up from ninth to fifth place and has a couple of games in hand.

Likewise, Spurs have climbed up the predictions, moving up to fifth in the latest 3 January 2022 rankings.

Spurs’ SPI score has increased massively up to 79.7, with a +/- .2 in both the offensive and defensive ratings, which are now 2.2 and 0.6. As a result, the team’s probabilities have shifted dramatically.

While Spurs still have a less than 1% chance to win the league – only three teams are above 1% – they also have a less than 1% chance of being relegated. Given how poor Tottenham’s form was before that is a relief.

The biggest change has been in the club’s odds of qualifying for the Champions League. What was only an 8% chance before has increased to 31%. Arsenal still has better odds at 38% but the increase for Spurs has been dramatic, to say the least.  That 31% is aggregated from the odds Spurs finish first (>1%), second (1%), third (7%), or fourth (22%).

Given the analytics are based on the algorithm and numerous simulations of the season, a one in three shot of making the Champions League feels about right at this point. And in the end, that is really what analytics provides, a check on our eyes and the results.

If results keep going Spurs way, expect them to continue to rise up the rankings – although Manchester City seems uncatchable at this point – if Tottenham starts to falter, there are plenty of teams looking to take their place and the numbers know just who they are.