Tottenham loss sets up battle for final EPL European place

Three points and Tottenham would have been nearly guaranteed a place in some European competition next season. Instead, the Spurs blew yet another lead and may have given away any midweek excursions for next season. While a Spurs win on the last day against Leicester City would almost assuredly mean Europe, it may not be Europa League.

Six Premier League teams definitely in Europe

With their win against West Brom Albion, West Ham United more or less assured themselves of a spot in Europe next season. In theory, West Ham could finish eighth but it would take a Hammers loss combined with an eight-goal swing in goal differential with Everton. In other words, West Ham is going to finish no worse than seventh.

With the top five a give – although the order is not and West Ham almost assuredly in, that leaves only 1 place up for grabs. With Spurs, Everton, and Arsenal all within 1 point of each other any of the three could conceivably win that final spot and a birth in the inaugural Europa Conference League.

Tottenham can still make Europa League

Despite the bog of teams all clumped together with Tottenham, the path to sixth place is actually straightforward. First, of course, Tottenham must win to get to 62 points. A Spurs win combined with a West Ham loss to Southampton would see Tottenham jump the Hammers for sixth on goal difference.

With Tottenham playing Leicester City – who is fighting for Champions League – and West Ham playing Southampton – who is fighting for nothing – the odds are stacked against the Spurs at this point.

The good news to all of this is that Tottenham does have the inside track on 7th place but of course, they had the inside track on 6th place less than 24 hours ago. That said, if Tottenham wins, they will make at least the Conference League no matter what.

Tottenham could finish as low as ninth

Alternatively, if the Spurs lose it is quite possible the Lilywhites finish in 9th behind archrivals Arsenal. Almost inexplicably the Gunner even can make the Conference League with a win combined with Everton and Tottenham losses. Given Everton plays Manchester City, it is possible both the Toffees and Spurs lose while Arsenal beats bottom half Brighton.

Ultimately, the Lilywhite’s loss is good for the intrigue of the Premier League on the last day but for Spurs fans, it is nerve-racking and utterly disappointing.  While no one is ready to do a victory lap over the Conference League, some Europe is better than no Europe.