As we approach the business end of the season the tough prospect of a year outside of Europe seems more and more likely for Tottenham Hotspur. The Spurs still have a puncher’s chance at making the top four but are far more likely to finish outside the top six than inside the top four at this point.
Tottenham not mathematically eliminated
Despite the 10th loss of the season on Sunday to Manchester United – Spurs had 11 all of last year – Tottenham still has a chance at making the top four, mathematically. While the odds are long, there is still almost inexplicably a six percent chance Tottenham Hotspur finishes in the top four according to fivethirtyeight.com.
Before you get too giddy about those odds, know that 6% represents the 2% chance Spurs still have of finishing third, along with the 4% chance of finishing fourth. In other words, the Lilywhites are very, very long shots to achieve the objectives we all want and the club needs financially.
Things pick up a bit for the Spurs, as they have a 9% chance of finishing fifth, which is the last guaranteed European position in the Premier League. The fact is, Tottenham is more likely to finish outside the top five than in it.
Tottenham are most likely to finish 7th
If you drill into the numbers, fivethirtyeight.com believes Tottenham Hotspur is most likely to finish 7th this season. At 29%, the odds of the Lilywhites finishing 7th are nearly double the 15% chance Spurs have of finishing in the top five.
Even from the 29%, the Lilywhites are more likely – according to the numbers – to actually finish 8th, a 20% chance, than in 6th a 17% chance. If you add the numbers up it is almost even money that Tottenham finishes 7th or 8th (49%) as any other position in the table at this point.
If you want to call it that, the good news is that the Spurs are likely to finish no lower than12th. However, Spurs are also as likely to finish in 11th place as 3rd place at 2, so things can certainly keep getting worse. Of course, a win on April 25 at least guarantees a spot in the Europa League playoffs, which may be Spurs’ best and only course to reach European football next season.