Europa League: What Tottenham Can Expect from Dinamo Zagreb

When Dinamo Zagreb comes to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Thursday, they represent a relative unknown for Tottenham and most fans. Sure, Zagreb is where Spurs signed Luka Modrić from way back in the day and once face Dinamo Zagreb in the 2008 UEFA Cup, which resulted in a 4-0 Spurs win a White Hart Lane. However, those two events were in the distant past and give us no real idea of what to expect from Dinamo Zagreb in the match on Thursday, so what should we expect from GNK Dinamo Zagreb when they face Tottenham Thursday?

Tottenham Facing a Good Defense

Dinamo Zagreb is nothing if not difficult to score against. In eight matches in this season’s UEFA Europa League Dinamo has only conceded 3 total goals, with only 1 against in the Group Stage. With six clean sheets in eight matches, Zagreb is only conceding a minuscule .4 goals per match coming into the Round of 16.

Dinamo’s defense is not like Tottenham’s defense where the strength comes from holding possession and staying on the attack, rather it is from good defense. Dinamo concedes a relatively high number of shots per match at 12 per contest but only 1/3 of those end up being on target and then Dominik Livakovic is a pretty strong keeper. With 27 saves in eight matches, Dinamo is averaging more than 3 saves per game.

Part of the success defensively for Dinamo comes from having a solid back four in front of Livakovic. While the formations in front of the defense may morph and adapt based on the opponent, we can expect a four-man backline that works hard to keep Spurs in front of them, commits few dumb fouls, and limits the clean looks for Tottenham.

Dinamo has been successful defensively both in Europe and in their Croatian domestic league where they are currently in 1st place with a plus 35 goal difference with a 17-3-3 record in 23 matches. With just 22 goals against, giving up under a goal per game is just what Dinamo is about. Only twice all season have they conceded three goals in a match and they have 10 shutouts in the domestic campaign.

Dinamo Zagreb have a proficient and effective attack

With 57 goals in 23 matches – 2.48/match- Dinamo Zagreb does not have a problem scoring in their league. And while the goals per match average in Europa League is not as high, Zagreb is proficient at scoring. Dinamo has 13 goals in their eight matches, which is 1.63 per game. Those 13 goals came from just 87 total shots for a 15% true conversation rate.

As a point of comparison, in Europa League this season, Tottenham has scored 23 goals from 141 shots, which is a 16% conversion rate. This means Zagreb does about as well as Tottenham does when they get their opportunities, they just do not get quite as many.

Much of the Zagreb attack actually comes from the flanks. About 3.75% of ALL their passes are crossed, not including 44 corners, which is actually 9 more corner kicks than Tottenham have taken thus far in Europa League. In other words, expect to see Dinamo launching the ball into the box and creating 50/50 chances whenever they can on offense. As we know Tottenham is not particularly strong in the air and this could be problematic.

Dinamo can win and can win on the road

Yes, Dinamo Zagreb is a big fish from a rather small pond but they are still a big fish. As the 35th ranked team in all of UEFA, they are not meant to be a pushover. Dinamo was playing in the Champions League last season scoring against Manchester City in the Group Stage and ack in 2015, Dinamo beat Arsenal on one of two legs in the Champions League.

Having played Arsenal multiple times – including the win – and Manchester City last season the moment is unlikely to be too big for Dinamo the way it was for Wolfsberger. In fact, Dinamo is unbeaten in four road games in this competition. With eight goals for and just two against and a 3-1-0 record in those four matches, Dinamo Zagreb knows how to travel and travel well.

Ultimately, Tottenham is very capable of beating Dinamo Zagreb, however, that will not happen just because they show up. If Spurs are looking for a team to mess the bed and beat themselves, they have another thing coming for them. On the other hand, if Tottenham comes ready to play against a quality opponent and looks to limit their opportunities while capitalizing on their own, Spurs can win this match and the two-legged affair.  Just do not be surprised if it is a little harder than you might like and Spurs are again facing a keeper having a day, as that is just how Zagreb rolls.