Do Analytics Support Tottenham this Season? Yes they do.

The Tottenham Hotspur approach under José Mourinho this season has some pundits believing Spurs are for real, for others not so much; what do analytics think?

Over the last decade the idea of advanced analytics has crept into all part of life, including sport. Fivethirtyeight.com – most well known for predicting elections – has an entire department dedicated to predicting sports, including football. With analytics as the lens and Tottenham as the focus we peek at if the numbers think Tottenham can win a trophy this season.

Football Analytics

Fivethirtyeight.com uses the Soccer Power Index (SPI) which has been used in some form to predict football since Nate Silver himself developed the algorithm in 2009 for ESPN. The actual formula used to determine the SPI for each team takes three other formulas into account; adjusted goals, shot-based expected goals, and non-shot based expected goals.

Scoring Teams – Soccer Power Index (SPI)

Adjusted goals is a complex formula designed to bring all teams back to their mean and actual performance over the course of a season. Shot-based expected goals is a prediction of the number of goals a team should score based on the number of shots taken, from where, and by whom. In many respects whether a team does or does not outperform their shot-based expected goals will determine success, but you need the prediction to outperform.

The third measure non-shot based expected goals is a fancy term for weighing possession and ball recovery. The more passes a team completes closer to the other team’s goal, the more likely they are – in theory – to score. The more a team regains possession in the other team’s half, the more likely they are to score – in theory. So, passes and ball recoveries, among other things, particularly in areas of the pitch closer to the goal produce a higher score in this area.

To overly simplify the measures, one is based on how much you really score, one is based on how much and how well you shoot, and the third measure really is a measure of possession. Clearly teams like Manchester City and Liverpool have strong scores thanks to that third measure; but then again, they are good teams.

Ranking Teams – Competition-by-competition

Fivethirtyeight.com is known for taking things to the nth degree and the fact that they score, and rank 637 football clubs globally is insane. That said, it is cool, as I can see the odds for my local Phoenix Rising USL team, LASK from the Autrian Bundesliga, and Atletico Madrid of La Liga all in one place. I mention those three, because they are all currently predicted to finish second in their respective leagues.

There are even predictions for the Women’s Super League, where the Tottenham Hotpsur Women currently sit midtable 8th but only have a 1% chance of being relegated. That is less than the likelihood of Arsenal’s men – who fivethiryeight.com currently have at a 3% chance of being relegated.

While the leagues are all predicted, so too is Europa League and the Champions League. However, the FA Cup and Carabao Cup do not receive a prediction. With the Europa League, Premier League, and Tottenham in mind, what do the analytics think of our Spurs?