Tottenham Champions League Outlook Update
By Aaron Coe
If Tottenham Hotspur have any dreams of European Glory this season the next two matches with PSV are MUST wins.
Only a third of the way into the Group Stages of the 2018-19 EUFA Champions League Campaign, Tottenham Hotspur must get six points from the next two games with PSV to any aspirations of European Glory, even if they are Europa League aspirations.
Yes, Tottenham have more games left to play in this iteration of the Champions League than they have played, but the upcoming home and away matches with PSV Eindhoven will likely decide Spurs fate in Europe this season. Face it Spurs fans, anything short of six points from the 10/24 match at Philips Stadion and the return tie at Wembley on 11/6 and any European dreams are gone.
If the unthinkable happens and Tottenham were to lose both matches, they would assuredly be guaranteed bottom of the Group and an end to any mid-week European revenue, I mean matches. Given the expenses of the new stadium that one day will open and the number of contracts that need renewing/improving this truly is an unthinkable and frankly unacceptable scenario for Spurs.
Splitting the two games with PSV would still leave things as they stand now, with Spurs in third by goal differential. I don’t know about you but leaving the fate of our European season to goal differential sounds awful to me. Don’t even get me started on us tying them…
This leaves us with the only realistically acceptable result for further European competition, which is win both matches, leaving Spurs firmly in third place in the group, all but assured at worst of continuing in the Europa League. Those six points are particularly critical, however, because Barcelona and Inter Milan play a home-and-home series themselves.
There are several basic scenarios for how Barcelona and Inter will play out and if Spurs take care of business and have six points come November 7, things could be anywhere from desperate to surprisingly optimistic.
The worst-case scenario for Spurs is a split of the two games between Barcelona and Inter. If this occurs, they both only drop 3 points and just as important gain 3 points. This means both teams will be sitting at 9 points, with games against Spurs and PSV remaining for each. Essentially, if they split, both are almost guaranteed to finish with 12 points even if Spurs win out, meaning home/away and goal differential will decide everyone’s fate. Not a great scenario and the most likely to end in Europa League.
Next is if any ties occur. If they tie both matches, they each drop 4 points, good, but add 2 points, which is bad for Spurs. Okay, so it is Barcelona and Inter both on 8 points and Spurs on 6. The scenario above is essentially the same, but Spurs would hold their fate in their own hands, where two wins would guarantee they would finish at worst second on 12 points.
If either win one and then tie other, that means one club is sitting pretty on 10 points while the other is just above Spurs at 7. Again, Tottenham would control their own destiny, but would still need to make up the point and would have little no margin for error.
The best-case scenarios for Spurs are in either side wins both games.
If Inter manages to beat Barcelona twice over three weeks, that would leave Inter top of group, nearly assured of advancing at 12 points. While Spurs would control their own destiny, they face Inter and Barcelona, while Barcelona would face Spurs and PSV. I know where my money would be.
The ultimate scenario for Spurs would be for Barcelona to win both games, leaving them top of the group and Inter tied with Spurs, depending on goal differential, for second place. While Inter would still have the easier schedule being done with Barcelona, this is still the most optimistic possibility for Tottenham. Further the Spurs-Barcelona fixture is the last one for Tottenham in the group. Conceivably at that point, Barcelona would already be assured of winning the group and would have much less to play for than a PSV team with zero wins from five matches to date.
In the end, if Tottenham can win all four, it is possible and, in some instances, likely they would make it out of the group stage. For that to happen Spurs need some luck with the Barcelona and Inter results, but more important than anything, if there are any European Dreams to be had Tottenham MUST sweep PSV.