Then till now: Recapping Tottenham v Liverpool 2017-18

While the results say slightly otherwise, Tottenham and Liverpool played two very similar matches last season where the home team was chasing the entire day.

Tottenham Hotspur faced Liverpool on Saturday afternoon, or really early morning for me. To look ahead to that match I looked back to the two matches from last year.

Tottenham faced Liverpool twice during the 2017-18 campaign, the first, a Match Day 9 Spurs win, and the second a controversial draw at the death on Matchday 26 of the Premier League. The first game at Wembley saw Liverpool chasing from the off and dominating possession, the second game had Tottenham trailing throughout and seizing the bulk of possession.

The 4-1 Spurs Win

The match at Wembley was easy to explain, Harry Kane scored in the 4^th minutes, followed by Heung-Min Son in the 12^th. While Mo Salah was able to pull back a goal in the 24^th minute, a typical Dele goal in the opening minutes of the second half (48), followed by Kane adding-on in the 56^th minute made this game appear a blowout.

Of course, this was before the Toby Alderwiereld injury last year, with Tottenham playing with a back three of Vertongen, Davison Sanchez, and Alderwiereld, with Aurier and Trippier as the two wing-backs. This was also before Harry Winks got injured and he held down the midfield as our only holding midfielder, allowing Spurs to push Eriksen, Kane, Son, and Dele all up the pitch early for the lead and later, on the counter to add on.

In many respects this game was a thrashing, I grew up with the belief that losing by more than 2 goals was a whooping, no matter what else may have happened. That said, Liverpool, as the chasing side most of the match commanded 64 percent of the possession in the game and amassed 629 passes, to only 359 for Spurs.

Liverpool’s command of the ball was so dominant 7 Liverpool players had more passes than Winks who was Spurs high man with 41 passes. However, the dominance of possession didn’t produce more than the 1 goal for Liverpool, and despite the possession advantage, Spurs outshot the Reds 14 to 12 and Liverpool’s only shot on target was the Salah goal.

Interestingly for Tottenham of their 359 passes, 69 of them were long balls. This was 19% of all of Tottenham’s passes. Something Spurs seem to do much more often with the healthy, fit, and playing Alderwiereld, who is one of the best long-ball, cross-field passes in the game. Beyond Winks, Trippier, Sanchez, and Alderwiereld were the next highest passes on the day.

The win pushed Spurs into second heading into Manchester United on Matchday 10. Unfortunately, late in the match Harry Kane was injured, taken off, and then subsequently missed the 1-0 loss to MU the next week.

Spurs Tie 2-2

The Matchday 26 game was an entirely different story. Mo Salah struck just 3 minutes into the match and left Tottenham chasing most of the day. Much like the game at Wembley before, the chasing team, in this case Tottenham dominated possession, with 66%. However, unlike Liverpool, Spurs also outshot Liverpool 13-9, including six on target. This only resulted in 2 goals for Spurs, however, the last a 95^th minute penalty by Kane.

The ball domination by Tottenham was even greater than that of Liverpool in the previous match with 9 different Tottenham players, including keep Hugo Lloris attempting more passes, 44, than anyone on Liverpool.

However, key players from the first match were not available for this game and it showed. Namely Harry Winks and Toby Alderwiereld. Tottenham played with a back four of Davies, Vertongen, Sanchez and Trippier, which really wasn’t the problem. The problem as we all know too well was the Dembele–Dier double pivot, which doesn’t allow either to play at their best and crowds the middle of the park.

So, while Tottenham trotted out the same front four of Kane, Son, Dele, and Eriksen; they hardly saw the ball, with Son and Kane combining for only 36 passes. So, while the attacking 4 remained the same, losing Winks all-around box to box play in the midfield stalled possession.

Additionally, Tottenham only played 79 long ball. Yes, that is 10 more than they played in the first match, but on 231 more total passes. Those 79 long balls accounted for only 13% of Tottenham’s passing on the day, compared to the 19% in the first match. As much as anything, this reflects Alderwiereld not being on the pitch.

In the end, a Wanyama, Goal of the Month screamer at the 80^th minute tied the game, only to see Tottenham again fall behind at the 91^st minute as Mo Salah struck again for his second goal on Liverpool’s 3^rd shot on target. Then at the death Kane was taken down and awarded a penalty, which he converted for the tie.

Tottenham v Liverpool Circa 2018-19

So what does the past tell us about the upcoming game for Tottenham?

Winks & Alderwiereld are Back!

The good news for Tottenham fans is that both Harry Winks and Toby Alderwiereld should be available for selection on Saturday. It is highly likely, particularly given some of our injuries and other absences that Tottenham go back to the back three that was so effective early last year and frankly in parts of this season already. Winks adds energy and Alderwiereld plays those dangerous cross-field balls.

The Long Ball

I know Tottenham is a pretty possession team, but the long-ball is necessary, especially against a slow-footed center-half like Dejan Loveran. Forcing him to chase and pulling him, or Virgil Van Dyke, or Joe Gomez, whomever it is away from goal to chase helps the team. Now that we have the fleet footed Lucas Moura to do some of the running, this should always be a part of the game plan, regardless of who Spurs play. Did I mention Toby Alderwiereld plays a nice cross-field ball?

Who controls possession?

Both Liverpool and Tottenham can play effectively dominating possession or sitting back and countering on the break. Last season the two early goals dictated who would sit back and who would dominate possession. Given the attacking styles and flare for both teams, I’d hope that would not be the case this season and that whoever takes the lead, if it is early, continues to attack. Based on last season’s results winning possession doesn’t mean you win the game.

Selection Headaches

Yes, Winks and Toby are back, however, Dele and Lloris are both out. Additionally, Son has travelled all over the world to win his freedom from military service and his availability may be limited. Hard to say if Erik Lamela will be fit or how long any of Wanyama, Dembele or Winks can really play in a game that likely will be as high pressured as Saturday’s clash.

Again, I think we need to go with the back 3 plus the 2 wing-backs. It seems Rose played well for England and might be rounding into form and he balances the team better than Davies.Did I mention Toby Alderwiereld plays a really superb cross-field ball? Tripps or Aurier can man the right, either way Moura and Eriksen will be doing more of the running down the right hand flank and both backs can overlap well to add pressure on the Liverpool back line.

While I assume we will see Michel Vorm in goal, I’d just as soon see Paulo Gazzaniga, who is more mobile. With Eriksen, Kane, and Moura all available, this leaves two spots in the midfield engine room up for grabs.

It would be great to see Winks out there, but who you pair with him may be a different story. Fitness for Dembele and Wanyama are issues and Dier just hasn’t been in form really since the World Cup. Sissoko is out and Onomah just got loaned out again, who knows we may see that Erik Lamela sighting after all.