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Tottenham Unbeaten when Dele scores in Premier League: Part 3

By Barrett Rouen

LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 01: Dele Alli celebrates scoring his side's first goal with Kieran Trippier of Tottenham Hotspur during the UEFA Champions League group H match between Tottenham Hotspur and Real Madrid at Wembley Stadium on November 1, 2017 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - NOVEMBER 01: Dele Alli celebrates scoring his side's first goal with Kieran Trippier of Tottenham Hotspur during the UEFA Champions League group H match between Tottenham Hotspur and Real Madrid at Wembley Stadium on November 1, 2017 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images) /
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In the final part of this series Aaron Coe examines Dele Alli’s scoring more closely. Enjoy!

 Dele Scoring and a Goal Fiesta

According to Transfer Markt Dele has scored the game winning goal 14 times out of his 38 Premier League goals. As I detailed in Part 2, this means Dele’s goals are the winner in more than 1/3 of his goals. What is interesting about this, is that only two of those 14 goals were the last goal in the game. In other words, when Dele scores, we can expect more goals, and usually all for Tottenham

Dele’s goals and total goals in the game

In 12 of 14 instances, Dele has scored what ultimately was the game-winning goal, Tottenham have gone on to score again. This seems to indicate Tottenham receive a lift when Dele scores with a clear trend of scoring again after a Dele goal. This is proven by the fact that only in the five 1-1 draws where Dele has scored, have Spurs failed to score multiple goals. Further, Tottenham has NEVER won a Premier League game 1-0 where Dele was the only goal scorer. Based on the 33 games where he has scored, we can expect more goals to follow.

Although, Spurs have never won 1-0 with Dele as the lone scorer, it is not like there haven’t been chances for it to happen. Beyond the three opening goals that resulted in ties, Dele has scored 7 other goals opening the scoring in a Tottenham Hotspur Premier League match.  So, Dele has scored 10 opening goals for Spurs, and I have established that none of these matches ended up 1-0, so what happens? Spurs roll.

Well, the combined scores across these 10 matches is 21 to 3. This means in the 7 wins where Dele has scored first, Spurs have gone on to win 18-0. 7 shut-outs and all multiple-goal games. This means beyond the .800 winning percentage overall, when Dele scores; if Dele scores the opener, Tottenham has a 70% chance to win. This is just the 10-match sample where Dele scores first, which accounts for 7 of his 14 overall game-winning goals, but it does seem meaningful.

With 17 of his 38 goals 45% being either the first goal or game winner and having established that more than 50%, 20 of 38, of Dele’s goals have directly impacted the result. This still leaves nearly half of his goals 18 of 38 that were not the tying or winning goal. Does this mean they were not significant?  I don’t think so.

Five of the 18 goals came on days when Dele himself was the one who padded the scoreline and he scored two goals on those occasions. So only 13 of 38 goals were goals where Dele was just adding to the score line, in other words meaningless goals in terms of the outcome for the game.

Of course, with the race for the top 4 always so close, goal differential matters. The bottom line here is when Dele scores expect more scoring to occur and most of it to come from the Spurs and maybe even Dele himself.  In part 4 I’ll explore when, where, and how Dele has scored those 38 goals in Premier League play.

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