Devil’s Advocate: Have Teams Figured Tottenham Out?

Tottenham’s run of three consecutive Premier League draws can be — and probably should be — shrugged off, but there remains another possibility that can’t be ignored: teams have found a way to counter Mauricio Pochettino’s tactics.

We just went over why Tottenham’s current lack of luster shouldn’t be a concern for the team or its fans. The underlying numbers look fine — even encouraging — and in a large sample size Tottenham’s quality will bear itself out.

What if, though, Pochettino’s unique tactical set is simply losing its charm?

We don’t have to look farther than Saturday’s opponents Leicester to see how this possibility might play out. The reigning Premier League champions are faltering so far this season, currently sitting 11th on 12 points after 10 games played. Not exactly the type of form that one would expect from a team defending its crown.

There are plenty of specific reasons we could get into about Leicester’s fall from grace. The loss of N’Golo Kanté to Chelsea over the summer. The added burden of Champions League play. But it’s hard to ignore another, more general reality: teams simply do not underestimate Leicester anymore.

This is true of teams both big and small. Whereas last season Leicester would face teams who felt they could confidently come at them and leave space in behind, now virtually everyone knows better. They’ve seen what Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez can do, and won’t be falling for Claudio Ranieri’s tricks for a third or fourth time.

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All of which means that teams are more cautious with Leicester. They don’t push upfield, they mark Vardy and Mahrez into irrelevancy and they dig into the Kanté-sized hole in midfield. The result is that the Foxes have one of the worst road records in the league and look far, far away from duplicating their efforts last season.

Tottenham, to some extent, are suffering through the same reaction. Pochettino took Tottenham to another level last season. Consequently, teams at all levels in the Premier League and abroad are treating them with renewed respect.

This isn’t the same Spurs team that opponents can be confident in breaking down. No, they’ve overcome their Spursy ways. A stern, organized defense is the only reaction to Pochettino’s boys. Perhaps opponents can’t be confident in a win, but they know better than ever how to not lose.

You can pick up this shift in the numbers. Whereas Tottenham’s shooting and accuracy don’t appear to have taken too much of a hit despite relatively paltry returns, things on the opposite end of the pitch look strange.

The biggest disparity between last season’s averages and this season’s might just be in interceptions. They managed 17 a game last season. After ten games this season, that average is down to 9.7.

To an extent this is a good metric to test the efficiency of Tottenham’s press — recovering the ball early and often is the whole point, after all. It’s hard to say why it’s dropped so precipitously though.

There are possible individual factors. Mousa Dembélé was perhaps Tottenham’s biggest contributor if interceptions last term. He missed the start of the season this term through suspension and has suffered injuries since. Without him in the side, Tottenham’s press hasn’t been what it should be.

Speaking more generally, we could also be seeing a dip as a result of teams playing it safer against Tottenham. Planning on some adventurous tactics never worked out pretty well against Tottenham last season. Just look at results against Bournemouth, the Manchester clubs and even the draws against Arsenal. Coming out and taking the game to Spurs hurt more often than it helped.

So playing a more conservative game only makes sense. Matches consequently more closely resemble sieges, with Tottenham rarely bothered on the other end but stifled when they press forward.

Long time Tottenham fans will remember that this is a similar set of circumstances that André Villas-Boas found himself in at the start of his second season with the club. After a record points haul in 2012/13, Tottenham were poised to break through to the Premier League’s top level. 

Only opposition teams weren’t having it. Though Gareth Bale had gone, no one was particularly anxious to see what Villas-Boas’ team could do in attack. Teams waited out matches, Tottenham suddenly looked anemic and the Portuguese was out by December.

Next: The Results Will Come for Tottenham

Pochettino is not Villas-Boas, of course. He’s already proven he’s much more versatile and open to the changes that might need to be made to keep Tottenham competitive.

If perhaps we’re not seeing those dramatic changes right now, it’s likely because he recognizes that this “slump” is just that. With time Tottenham will overcome these conservative, borderline negative tactics and start to earn the wins they deserved.