Çalhanoğlu to Tottenham is a Pipe Dream. Probably.
By Ryan Wrenn
As the days between now and the end of the transfer window dwindle, Tottenham fans need to be cautious about the rumors they read.
Some are reasonable. Georges-Kévin Nkoudou’s arrival from Olympique de Marseille is taking longer than expected but was never outside the realm of possibility. Similarly, completed moves for Victor Wanyama and Vincent Janssen appeared likely even when they were just the most baseless of rumors.
Recent reports from Bild suggesting that Tottenham might be in for Bayer Leverkusen midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu fall well outside such a plausible range however.
Let’s count down the reasons.
- Çalhanoğlu is one of Leverkusen’s most valuable assets. He’s a little bit of everything in the club’s midfield. By way of perspective, he’s a Turkish Christian Eriksen. The Bundesliga side relies heavily on his presence in attack and at set pieces.
- At 22-years-old, his ceiling slated to get even higher. For a team like Leverkusen that is very much in the ascendancy in a suddenly more competitive Bundesliga, it seems unlikely that someone like Çalhanoğlu is simply allowed to leave.
- Assuming he is actually on the table as far as transfers go, Tottenham will have to compete with Atlético Madrid for the player’s signature. With Leverkusen’s asking price already rumored to be over £20 million, it’s fair to assume that Daniel Levy would get priced out fairly quickly.
- Last, but by no means least, where does Çalhanoğlu fit if he does come in? Though he can player central midfield, he’s spent much of his career as part of an attacking midfield trio. With the likes of Dele Alli already competing with Vincent Janssen for a spot in the starting XI, who gets dropped to accommodate such an expensive signing as Çalhanoğlu?
These are issues that, broadly speaking, apply to every big name Tottenham have been linked with this summer. The realities of the club’s finances and an already deep squad rule out rumors such as this before they even find traction.
For the sake of argument, though, let’s play out how a move like this would work.
First and foremost, Tottenham need to offload an attacking midfielder. That player would have to be an automatic starter and command a transfer fee sufficient to cover Çalhanoğlu’s asking price.
Perhaps we start with Heung-min Son. The South Korean only arrived at Tottenham last summer — oddly enough from Leverkusen for a similar asking price as Çalhanoğlu — but he’s rumored to be on the way out. If he can fetch a fee close to what Tottenham paid for him, then perhaps there’s room to afford Çalhanoğlu.
Son himself wasn’t a starter though. He was either benched or injured for much of last season, and isn’t expected to dislodge anyone in 2016/17. If he’s sold and Çalhanoğlu bought, that still doesn’t make room for him in Pochettino’s regular plans.
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The obvious choice, then, is Eriksen. With Tottenham’s Danish playmaker in the midst of a contract dispute, this isn’t that far fetched. Levy could expect a healthy sum for Eriksen were he sold to, say, Juventus or Inter. It might even be enough to funnel straight toward the purchase of Çalhanoğlu.
What’s the on-pitch trade off though? Can Çalhanoğlu capably slot into Eriksen’s role?
All signs point to “yes.” Çalhanoğlu averaged about 40 passes per game according to WhoScored, 2.6 of which resulted in chances created. In the roughly 50 passes per game Eriksen managed last season, he created 1.7 chances.
Both players excel at direct free-kick situations. They’re also consistent shooters in open play, though Eriksen might have a slight edge in that regard.
The biggest difference between the two players might give the edge to Çalhanoğlu. The Turkish international thrives in wider areas, and has proven in past seasons to be a menace with a cross. Eriksen, in contrast, much prefers to cut inside to work in the middle of the park.
That tendency was pervasive through the squad last season, but it paid off. Tottenham were deadly in narrow positions, thanks in large part to Eriksen’s influence.
Pochettino seems ready to broaden Tottenham both literally and figuratively however. Finding a player who could replicate Eriksen’s production while also widening play could be quite a boon whatever the cost.
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This remains entirely fanciful at this juncture however. There’s no real reason to move on from Eriksen unless the contract situation is insurmountable. Plus one of Tottenham’s main advantages this term is consistency. How much is it worth to integrate Çalhanoğlu or another player into the team?
Tottenham fans would be better off not getting their hopes up for a complicate move to go down. There are more reasonable targets, one that could come into Tottenham at more reasonable prices and expectations.