Tottenham’s Bid for Janssen Scuttled by Billy Beane

In a bitter piece of irony, Tottenham’s attempts to acquire Vincent Janssen seem to be complicated by Major League Baseball’s Billy Beane.

The Oakland Athletics operations executive was made famous in the early ’00s by his revolutionary approach to scouting and recruiting new players. The method — later termed “Moneyball” by the man who documented Beane’s story in a book by the same name, Michael Lewis — was so successful that it helped spawn a statistical revolution in America’s pastime that continues to this day.

Beane’s talents haven’t always worked, but for baseball teams looking for a cost-effective approach to recruitment and improving their teams it’s been hugely influential.

So influential, in fact, that Moneyball has made its way into other sports, including football. Tottenham’s penchant for finding undervalued players and thus maintaining a sustainable wage and transfer bill have often been described as Moneyball, and it’s a probably a label that Daniel Levy and Mauricio Pochettino would be proud of.

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Now though, their spiritual godfather is working against them. Beane has long been a fan of European football, and recently took on an advisory role with Dutch club AK Alkmaar. The club evidently rely on his valuation of players — both their own and those of other clubs — when making moves on the transfer market.

And so it was that when Tottenham lodged their latest bid to acquire striker Vincent Janssen from AK that it was denied, in part, on the advice of Beane. His valuation algorithm estimates Janssen’s value at roughly £16.5 million, while the highest Tottenham have so far been willing to go is £15 million.

That’s a small difference, and in all likelihood the the two club’s will work toward some kind of deal, but Beane’s suddenly directly influence over the game is hard to ignore.

With the likes of Michy Batshuayi going for preposterous fees — £30 million for a player with one year of starting experience in Ligue 1? — means that the market is reaching inflation levels. With television deals lining the pockets of even the smallest Premier League team, and Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich all more capable of signing whomever they want, suddenly even the most modestly experienced or talented players are commanding huge fees and wages.

Tottenham’s relatively newfound desire to hunt down and find undervalued players is set the be complicated not just by other teams’ sudden awareness of this untapped market, but also their ability to spend money in excess of the players’ values. Chelsea’s buy of Batshuayi is a good example, and it won’t be the last.

Next: Vincent Janssen Wants Tottenham Move, Upset with AZ

Returning back to the Janssen and Beane situation, that too will continue to be a thorn in the side of Tottenham and other clubs who previously looked to France or the Netherlands for unexploited talent. Selling clubs will continue to grow wise to the actual value of their players and thus ask for more. Tottenham would do well to take what they can get now before Janssen and other targets suddenly find their asking price inflated to unrealistic levels.