The Value of Set Pieces to Tottenham, Part 1
By Ryan Wrenn
Would Tottenham benefit from being fouled more often?
That reads like a ridiculous question, and in a way it is. How would Tottenham convince their opponents to foul them more often? And more importantly, why would they want that?
Let’s rephrase the question to make it a bit more clear: would Tottenham benefit from more set pieces?
The answer is a conditional ‘yes’. Tottenham currently lead the Premier League in goals scored off of set pieces with seven: three from corners, three from set pieces and one penalty. Over twelve games, that might not seem like much. But taken in context, something genuinely interesting shows up.
Consider that Tottenham finished last season tied for fourth most set piece goals scored in the Premier League with 15, while West Brom and Crystal Palace shared the top spot with 19 such goals each. Were we to extrapolate the club’s current seven goal haul to a full 38 match season, Tottenham will have scored 22 goals off of corners, free kicks or penalties.
What makes that potential result so remarkable is twofold.
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One, without even really trying, Tottenham might better the efforts of two clubs that very consciously orient their game around set pieces. West Brom is currently a Tony Pulis team, after all, and Crystal Palace was one not too long ago as well. They are squads constructed at least in part around finding an advantage on dead balls, and Tottenham seem to be besting them without even really trying.
Two, Tottenham are among the least fouled teams in the Premier League. Per WhoScored, Spurs ended last season 18th in the Premier League with the whistle blowing in their favor 10.1 times per match. So far this season they sit 16th with a rate of 9.8 fouls per match. Such rates are broadly consistent season-to-season with most teams, with Spurs specifically having not broken into the top ten even in the few seasons before Mauricio Pochettino’s arrival.
Added to that, Tottenham are consistently connecting with balls delivered via corner kick. They’ve managed accurate corners 2.6 times last season and 2.9 so far this season, enough to put them in the top three in the Premier League by that metric. Their accuracy in free kicks is less on average, but one imagines that that figure is more the result of Tottenham’s customary free kick taker, Christian Eriksen, justifiably preferring to go straight at goal more of than not.
All of which speaks to a clear contrast between the rate at with Tottenham earn dead ball chances from fouls and the rate at which they score from set pieces. They have all the weaponry they need to take advantage of set pieces when they come: Eriksen’s precision, Toby Alderweireld’s aerial ability and Eric Dier’s physicality in the box. What they might lack is the capacity – or the desire – to earn more set pieces in dangerous positions.
Next: Tottenham Target Moussa Dembele is Another Utility Player
The problem with the WhoScored foul figures cited above is that they, of course, do not include any positional information. Those are fouls that occur anywhere on the pitch, not just in or around the opposition’s penalty area, where the resulting set pieces would be most valuable.
So how often do Tottenham earn fouls in dangerous areas? Is there a way they could earn more or better quality set pieces without resorting to flopping or gamesmanship? We’ll investigate those questions in more in the second half of this analysis of Tottenham’s set pieces tomorrow.