Tottenham hasn’t quite settled on its identity this season.
While the team has a good spot on the table, it hasn’t looked like a dangerous squad against the other teams contending for those top spots. The squad looks at one moment like it will contend for silverware and another like it’s in a rebuild (and probably both appearances are a little true).
Although noisy fans might not want to admit it, Tottenham has been creating chances and getting shots off at a reasonable rate this season. (Has any third-place team ever taken such criticism? Well, probably.) The team does, however, seem to have a split personality, taking possession and aggressive play to weaker teams while drifting back, absorbing pressure, and hoping for counterattacks against better squads. That’s a normal team strategy, but it’s not one paying off for Tottenham, with ugly losses against Arsenal, Manchester United, and Newcastle.
That latest game was revealing, as Tottenham came out aggressively, with Heung-min Son getting a handful of early shots. The team continued to get their chances, but not enough truly threatening shots. In the Newcastle game, the Spurs looked okay statistically (10 out of 17 shots came from in the box), but the quality of attempts wasn’t great enough to overcome key mistakes.
Against the top teams throughout the season, Tottenham hasn’t particularly struggled to get off enough shots, but the team has failed to shoot in the box frequently enough. Partly that point would be intuitive; the better a team plays, the harder it is to get good shots against them. Partly that point suggests Tottenham’s weakness at breaking down opponents’ defenses outside of transition (though, to be fair, that’s more weakness compared to fans’ ideal version of the team rather than to other Premier League teams).
It may be that the Spurs can solve this problem not by adjusting their offense but by changing their approach to defending, particularly when utilizing their 3-5-2 formation. When both Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison are healthy, the team has multiple creative and energetic options in the attack. Set into the 3-4-3, both of those players stretch a defense and can capitalize on Harry Kane‘s playmaking ability. With neither of them on the pitch, the team slows down.
Tottenham can help their formation with more defensive aggression
To fix the problem and to generate a higher percentage of dangerous shots, Tottenham can look for more counterpressing opportunities. The team wouldn’t have to embrace a full gegenpressing style (which wouldn’t suit Conte’s method), but watching for the right moments to employ an aggressive press would lead to turnovers high enough up the pitch that the team wouldn’t need to unlock an opposition block to get off higher percentage shots.
The idea suits the team for a few reasons. First, it more functionally employs Emerson Royal. While his crossing has been a mess, his work rate and his defending have been his strengths. Given that, it makes sense to let him use those skills in a more dangerous position. Second, with three midfielders on the pitch – and at least two of which at any moment seem to be defensive-minded – the team can still hold the center of the field while playing to those strengths. The team lacks a true creative attacker at midfield (though Rodrigo Bentancur becomes more interesting as time goes on) and doesn’t have a deep-lying playmaker to run the show. A fast counter-press best utilizes those skills, and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg’s tackling skills in particular, would provide support.
Tottenham’s summer transfer window gave the team needed depth, and with five substitutes now allowed per game, it makes sense to use them. In many ways (the loaded midfield, the back three, the natural ability to get compact), the 3-5-2 suits a quick press, but it demands heavy work by the wing backs. Tottenham doubles up well at these positions. Having Emerson go all out for 60 minutes before exiting for Matt Doherty doesn’t lead to a drop in quality.
The need to press is lessened with Kulusevski or Richarlison in as part of a 3-4-3, where the attacking options work a little better and faster regardless of where they start on the pitch. As those two return, we’ll likely see a revitalized squad, but even with them back, Tottenham might need to find more variety in its approach to maintain its top-four standing.