Meeting for the first time in league competition in over 70 years and the first time ever in the top flight, what can we expect from Tottenham vs Brentford.
They say styles make games so this match-up between the Bees and Spurs should be a good game for the fan and casual alike as the approach of each team is a contrast in styles.
The tentative versus the direct
It has been some time since we have seen Tottenham Hotspur as a free-wheeling offensive juggernaut. Maybe the team was there for a moment under Jose Mourinho but overall Spurs have not been an exceptional attacking unit in a couple of seasons.
Spurs have many of the same players that were so successful before but that assuredness with the ball is gone. Over the last year, Tottenham has wavered between uncertain and scared when in possession. Antonio Conte was certainly hired to help fix this problem, however, Spurs’ lack of idea with the ball contrasts well with Brentford’s direct play.
If you look at the two team’s passing statistics this becomes so clear. Tottenham has completed 4,831 out of 5,909 passes an 81.8% success rate. Those 4,831 successful passes have traveled 89,870 yards, of which 28,927 have been progressive or forward yards, according to fbref.com. Broken down for every one-yard forward Spurs go with the ball, they go two yards sideways. Our eyes do not deceive us, Spurs go back and forth a lot.
If you look at these same statistics with Brentford, you see if a different approach. The Bees have completed 3,839 of 5,351 passes attempted a 71.7% completion rate. On those 3,839 successful passes, Brentford has covered, 77,259 yards with the ball, of which 29.881 were progressive yards, according to fbref.com.
Besides Brentford having more progressive yards passing on far fewer completions, these numbers tell us a few things. First, Tottenham despite their woes passing is a better passing team than Brentford in terms of completion percentage. However, this is mostly because Tottenham is much more conservative in possession whereas Brentford looks to push the ball.
The average Tottenham pass is 18.6 yards and moves 5.9 yards forward. This is quite conservative compared to the Bees average pass of 20 yards, which moves 7.7 yards forward.
Nearly 23% of all Brentford passing attempts are longer than 30 yards compared to less than 17% of such passing being attempted by Tottenham. The bottom line is Brentford is direct, they want to push the ball and if they lose it, they are okay with that; which makes for some outstanding end-to-end football.
Tottenham Outside vs Brentford Inside
More than any team Tottenham has faced this season, Brentford likes to push the ball and attack up the middle of the pitch. With Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo up top, Brentford can hit you over the top and through the middle as well as any team in the league.
Although Toney only has four goals thus far this season – Kane only has 1 in the League – Ivan did have 31 last season in the Championship. Expect to see balls whether from Pontus Jansson in the midfield or Rico Henry and Sergi Canos out wide, to be hit early and often toward Mbeumo and Toney as well as into space for the duo to chase.
If you compare this to how Tottenham is likely to approach the match, we again have a big contrast. Spurs are going to try to keep possession and knock it is around. However, where Tottenham is most likely to make real progress and have some success attacking Brentford is in the wide areas.
As the Bees try to crowd the middle and sneak passes through, Spurs are going to have to push Emerson Royal and Sergio Reguilon up the pitch to really force the action. The idea is to use the wing-backs to get the outside centre-backs in Brentford’s back three off their spots to create space for Heung-Min Son, Harry Kane, and Lucas Moura.
Ideally, having two wide players on both sides will stretch Brentford defensively and provide space for Spurs’ more detailed passing game and the opportunities they have been lacking. Likewise, some service from the wings into the box would sure help the cause in Spurs 3-4-3 formation.
Expect some goals from Brentford at Tottenham
Together through 25 matches, the two clubs have only had two 0-0 draws this season. Combining that with the contrasting styles and the open play that Brentford tends to create we should also expect some goals on Thursday evening.
Brentford has been in three matches with at least six goals this season – two in the league – while Spurs have been in three matches with at least five goals – one in the league – so the potential for some crooked numbers on the scoreboard is there.
After not playing for a week and still likely with a bad taste in their mouth, Tottenham should be ready but so too will be Brentford, who is not afraid to throw a punch. Spurs should win, but do not expect it to be easy and assume they need at least two goals to take all three points and start a busy week on a high note.