While most will expect Manchester City to continue their run of opening league wins, Tottenham Hotspur matches up well against City and can beat the Sky Blues.
If Tottenham Hotspur is to end Manchester City’s first-game winning streak at 10 matches they are going to have to play to their strengths and exploit City’s weaknesses. The Spurs are fortunate to catch the Sky Blues as less than 100%, however, even without Kevin De Bruyne, City is a good team. The Lilywhites are going to have to play well and do the following five things to win.
Tottenham Key One – Fight to win the possession battle
Tottenham kind of ruined their own season last year falling in love with their win at home against Manchester City. While 2-0 on paper seems a solid drubbing – and it is – the reality of that match was that City peppered shots toward goal but could not really get much on target.
Following that win, the Spurs seemed to think they could sit back and simply counter and beat anyone and that was not the case. And while Spurs retain a healthy respect for City, we will not see the same kind of park-the-bus philosophy of last season. Rather, Tottenham is going to fight to win the ball and maintain possession.
Manchester City wants the ball and grows the longer they have it. Step one to beating them is not allowing the tempo, flow, and rhythm of the match to be entirely dictated by City. To avoid that you have to fight for and maintain a healthy percentage of possession. Tottenham does not really have to win the possession battle. However, if Spurs can keep City’s possession closer to 53% rather than 63% it favors the Lilywhites.
Tottenham Key Two – Be quick on the counterattack
I realize that after saying you have to fight for possession and not park the bus to say anything about counter-attacking seems slightly counter-intuitive. However, in practice, counter-attacking football can occur almost anywhere on the pitch and Tottenham is really good at it. While it should not be the only approach for scoring against Manchester City, the Spurs do need to leverage the counter.
More than anything, Tottenham needs to move the ball quickly when they gain possession from City, wherever it happens to be on the pitch. We already know the main defensive strategy in transition for City under Pep is to foul. Well, you avoid those fouls with quick passing movements and fast counterattacking.
As City get sucked up the pitch in possession, taking your chances to attack them quickly before they can recover their shape and structure and before they can foul you to stop the attack is the way to go.
Tottenham Key Three – Attack Manchester City down their left
With John Stones recovering from the summer and Aymeric Laporte looking to leave the club, Nathan Ake is likely to start on the left side of the City center-back pair. Ake is a player that Tottenham can get at and should be looking to attack.
Additionally, whether it is Benjamin Mendy or Oleksandr Zinchenko at left fullback, neither is the player that either Kyle Walker or Joao Cancelo are. Given the choice of attacking Ruben Dias and Cancelo, or Ake and Mendy, the answer is clear, Spurs are going to work up their right flank.
The real issue for the Lilywhites is that they have really struggled to find the consistent play on the right-wing they need for the last few seasons. Gareth Bale did a job but is back with Real Madrid. Ideally, Lucas Moura and even Serge Aurier can drive up the right of the pitch and take advantage of the weaker links in the City defense. While this seems the perfect job for Bryan Gil, it is likely too early and it is up to Lucas and the right back.
Tottenham Key Four – Follow the runners
When you look at the goal scoring for Manchester City last season what you see is that got goal contributions from all over the pitch. However, the one position you would expect to score a lot of goals, center-forward was not the top for the team. It was central midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and left-winger Phil Foden who led City with 17 and 16 goals in all competitions.
While Jesus had 14 goals as the primary center forward, left-winger Raheem Sterling and right-winger Riyand Marhez both had 14 goals as well. The point is, City gets goals from lots of different sources many of which come from runs into the box.
Tottenham struggled at times against Chelsea picking up the runners coming from the midfield and breaking into the box and conceded as a result. Against Arsenal, the Spurs did a better job of identifying the runners and going with them into the box. If Tottenham is to stop Manchester City from scoring they need to make sure they are running with those late-breaking midfielders and wingers because un-marked men in the box is a recipe for disaster.
Tottenham Key Five – Avoid the silly mistakes and stupid fouls
The real issue for Tottenham Hotspur last season was not one of goal scoring rather it was one of conceding goals at inopportune times and late in matches. The Spurs dropped a ridiculous amount of points – 21 – from winning positions last season. Additionally, they conceded a lot of goals they simply should not have.
Whether it was Eric Dier being called for a phantom handball, or Serge Aurier conceding a penalty just before the half, or Davinson Sanchez scoring an own goal, there were a lot of moments that did not go right for Tottenham defensively, many self-inflicted.
Many of the bad situations they found themselves in – see the Dier handball and subsequent draw with Newcastle – were the result of poor fouls. As Tottenham really struggled to defend set-pieces in and around the box and that issue was compounded by a continued string of fouls at the worst time in the worst positions.
The greater fitness the team has under Santo should help late in games. But if Tottenham cannot avoid giving City big chances for free around the box it may not matter. More than anything avoiding the big mistake by not committing the poor foul or making the dumb error can increase Tottenham’s odds of a victory.