Is Tottenham chasing the wrong Fulham defender, in Andersen?

In news that we know is not breaking like Sky Sports reports. Tottenham Hotspur is apparently again chasing after and even has made progress signing Fulham defender Joachim Andersen. However, if Tottenham were really forward-thinking in the recruitment department, it would be Andersen’s teammate Tosin Adarabioyo they would be scouting instead.

Tottenham Defense needs to get better

There are a number of areas to address in the Tottenham defensive middle, from getting younger, more athletic, to getting better passers, and frankly just better defenders. HotspurHQ covered a number of left-sided center-halves earlier in the season but Tottenham seems intent on signing another right-footed player if the Joachim Andersen to Tottenham rumors is to be believed.

However, for a number of reasons, we at HotspurHQ see Joachim Andersen as just more of the same as what we have, which is not enough on several levels. If Tottenham is serious about both getting better and getting younger, then it is not Andersen but his center-back partner, Tosin Adarabioyo they should be targeting as the team’s next right-center-half.

Fulham defense is not terrible

Adarabioyo and Andersen have formed the core of the Fulham defense this season and both are young with potentially bright futures in the Premier League. Before everyone goes crazy over Fulham being relegated, it was far more because of the offense than the defense.

Fulham has given up fewer goals than Leeds and only two more than West Ham at 47 against on the season. With the second worse offense in the league at only 25 goals for, the defense has not had much of a chance to shine.

And while neither Andersen nor Adaradioyo is a perfect target, both have promise. That said, here are three reasons, Tottenham should be targeting Adaradioyo instead of Andersen.

Tosin Adaradioyo is better on the ball

Tottenham clearly wants to build out of the back and to do that you need good passing center-halves. Tosin Adaradioyo is a better passer than is Joachim Andersen. While Andersen has attempted and completed slightly more passes on the season than has Adaradioyo, Tosin is more accurate.

Tosin Adaradioyo has completed more than 1600 passes this season at a rate of 86.8%, which is higher than Andersen (83.4%) and Toby Alderweireld (83%), according to fbref.com. Tosin’s passing is especially more effective on longer passes.

Tosin has the kind of passing Tottenham needs

On medium passes – 15-30 yards – Adaradioyo completed 94.1%, which is better than both Alderweireld (92.2) and Andersen (91.5). The better performance was even more apparent on long balls over 30 yards. Toby Alderweireld has completed 65.6% of 369 attempts, Andersen completed 69% of 568 attempts, and Tosin has completed 73% of 426 attempts.

While Adaradioyo is not attempting as many downfield balls as Andersen he is offering more than Toby and at a much higher rate of success than either of the other players.

Given the kind of team, Tottenham wants to build having defenders who are strong passers is a must, and Tosin fits that bill. Additionally, Adaradioyo might be a better defender than Andersen too.

Tosin, Solid defensive performer

Yes, we need defenders that can pass but ultimately Tottenham also needs defenders that can defend. Tosin Adaradioyo can definitely do that and in some ways better than Joachin Andersen. Simply from a team perspective, Fulham had a positive net expected goals of 0.14 when Tosin was on the field and a negative net expected goals of 0.95 when Andersen was on the field.

Of course, these two played together a ton but when it was Adaradioyo and not Andersen on the pitch, Fulham was better. Team defense is not the reason Tottenham should consider Tosin, however, it is how he defends.

While not quite as effective in the air, winning approximately 70% versus 76%, Tosin is actually a bigger defender than Joachin Anderson. At a year younger – 23, compared to Andersen’s 24 – and in only his first year versus the competition at the top flight level, one has to think Adaradioyo will improve in this area as well.

Adaradioyo is aggressive but does not foul like Tottenham

Despite playing more than 100 minutes less on the season, Adaradioyo has as many tackles and more interceptions than Andersen and only 8 fewer clearances. More importantly, Tosin does not foul at nearly the rate Joachim does. On the season Andersen has committed 41 fouls compared to just 13 from Tosin Adarabioyo.

Knowing how Tottenham defends that ability to avoid fouling defensively is a skill Spurs desperately need. On a per 90 basis Andersen commits 1.33 fouls, Toby Alderweireld is nearly half that total at just .73 fouls. Tosin Adarabioyo is even better at just .44 fouls per 90 minutes.

So if not Tosin Adarabioyo, please just someone who does NOT commit even more fouls than the current Tottenham defense.

Cheaper and British, just what Tottenham needs

Maybe the best reason to look very seriously at Tosin Adarabioyo, if anyone in the Fulham defense, is that he fits the mold of what Tottenham is really looking for. Joachim Andersen is on loan at Fulham and is under contract with Lyon until 2024. Adarabioyo is under contract with Fulham – who may need the money – and that contract expires in 2023, a full season earlier.

Currently, Transfermarkt.com shows Andersen as being valued at around $16.5 million (£11.7 million). Certainly, it is an affordable transfer although Sky Sports was talking about Lyon wanting around £20 million on the deal.

Adaradioyo is even more affordable, however. Currently valued at $11 million (£7.8 million) and being part of Fulham potentially makes Tosin more obtainable at a reasonable fee.

In fact, Fulham only signed Adaradioyo last season for just $3 million from the Manchester City Academy, meaning even at less than £10 million on the deal it would be a significant profit for Fulham.

Finally, it is that Manchester City Academy experience that adds the final strawberry on top. Adaradioyo is British having played for England up until the U19 level. The fact that Tottenham could add a young, homegrown player to their team, opening up precious space for other foreign players makes this just too logical of a situation not to further investigate.

Ultimately, we have no idea which direction Tottenham will go in the transfer market as neither do they without a Director of Football or a permanent manager. Until then, we can do what we hope Tottenham is doing and scout around, we just need to dig a bit deeper than Sky Sports.