One of the knocks on Harry Kane as he was developing for Tottenham was his inability to stay healthy and on the field. In his last two season before his breakout in 2014-15 Harry Kane missed 1/3 of his possibly playing opportunities with injury. While Harry Kane has had good seasons on the injury front, history tells us the Tottenham talisman may be out for a while and that is bad news for Spurs.
Early Injuries for Harry Kane
Harry Kane was last on loan from Tottenham in 2012-13 trying to develop to be part of the senior squad. The problem was for the first four months of the season, he could not get on the field with Norwich in the Premier League, according to transfermrkt.com.
Harry Kane played all of 3 matches over four months with the Canaries for a total of 135 minutes. Kane eventually moved on and managed to be available for Leicester City to finish the season in the Championship, even if he only scored 2 goals and had 1 assist on the season.
The next season 2013-14 Kane was back with Spurs but split his time between the youth team, the senior team, and the training room. Kane was excellent with the youth scoring 8 and assisting 5 in just 8 Premier League 2 matches that season. However, he also missed 12 matches with injury, thus only played in 19 total senior matches on the season.
Not including any DNP coaches decision situations – where Kane did not make the bench or leave the bench – Harry missed 12 of 31 matches or 39% of those available to him. Like Norwich the season before, Tottenham did well without Kane winning 7 of the 12 matches and dropping only 3. However, that was 2013-14 and Kane was a bit part player in the squad.
Harry Kane got Healthy and Hungry
We all know the breakout story of 2014-15 when Kane started scoring early in the Europa League and just kept on scoring as the season went on. Kane knocked in 31 goals and added six assists in that breakout season and missed a grand total of ZERO games with injury. Despite playing nearly 3,000 more senior minutes than he did the season before (3,690 min in 14-15 to 797 in 13-14) Kane did not miss a game hurt.
Kane went from playing less than 42 minutes per appearance to playing over 70 minutes per match and only missed six matches the entire season for Spurs – all coaches decisions. Providing a goal or assist at a rate just below 1 ever 100 minutes, Kane was on the scene.
2015-16 proved that Harry Kane was more than a 1 season wonder, as Spurs budding young star played in 50 matches and for a second straight season missed ZERO games with injury. Sitting only 3 matches – all coaches decision – and playing over 4000 minutes – (80.54/match) Kane again got the job done with 28 goals and 2 assists.
The totals per minute were lower 1 goal or assist every 134 minutes. This number was in line with his production from 2013-14 the difference was Kane played 80% more minutes and again missed zero matches due to injury.
What we saw was that one of the best abilities with Harry Kane in those first two breakout seasons was his availability. However, in three of the last four seasons Kane has missed double digit games with injuries and the team has performed progressively worse without him as the reliance on their English star has grown. So how have the injuries impacted Tottenham and Kane?
2016-17 and 2017-18 Opportunities Lost
Harry Kane again took his game up a notch in 2016-17. After producing at a high, but not nearly as efficient level in 2015-16 as he did in 2014-15, Kane went to a new level in 2016-17. Harry Kane had a career best goal or assist every 75.10 minutes in 2016-17, as he scored 35 goals and had 7 assists in just 38 matches.
Kane’s injuries cost Tottenham a shot at silverware
It was those 38 matches that were a problem as Harry Kane missed 13 games that season with injury. Sure Tottenham were unbeaten in 7 matches in league without Kane, but they did tie three, meaning they dropped six points. Oh Spurs lost the title to Chelsea by seven. Those three games are wins and Spurs are closer down the stretch who knows what happens.
Instead Spurs drop the league by seven points, finishing a club best second in the Premier League era. Further, Kane was actually injured twice in that 2016-17 season. The first time from September to November when Tottenham was knocked out of the EFL Cup. During this time Spurs drew and then lost two winnable games against Bayern Leverkusen in the Champions League, costing Spurs advancement.
Kane’s second injury, was in March and April, ultimately hurting Spurs during the run-in, although they went 3-0 in League during those matches. We will never know if Spurs might have won something that season had Kane stayed as healthy as the previous two seasons, we just know he was scoring for fun.
In 2017-18 Harry Kane was as close to completely healthy as he would be in the last four season. Kane never had a long-term injury and only missed three matches all season. His overall effectiveness was down a little, averaging a goal or assist once every 86 minutes, but still was pretty incredible.
Of those three matches Kane missed, Spurs won one and lost two. One of those two losses was in the fourth round of the EFL cup, meaning Kane missed Tottenham’s exit from the competition. While you cannot blame that on Kane, we all know Spurs are better with him than without him. Unfortunately for Tottenham, the last two seasons for Harry Kane have looked more like 2016-17 from a health perspective than his two seasons prior, as Kane’s number and percentage of games missed has gone up.
Ligaments and Seasons Lost 2018-19 and 2019-20
In the last two seasons prior to the current Harry Kane has played more than 6300 minutes in some 74 appearances. Unfortunately, Tottenham have played 106 matches during that time, meaning Kane has missed 32 or 30% of Tottenham’s matches the last two seasons.
In 2018-19 Kane again missed two stretches of the season, as he had a stint on the sidelines in January and again in April-May. Both of these injuries were ankle injuries and Spurs did relatively well all things considered. Tottenham won eight, lost six, and drew once without Kane, but that was also during the magical run to the Champions League final.
With multiple injuries and coming off the World Cup, Kane had a slower season scoring 24 goals and assisting a further six, which equated to a goal or assist once every 111 minutes, his lowest total in three seasons. Of course Kane came back for the UCL final and the rest is history.
Then last season, Harry Kane missed 17 games with injury 33% of the season. That number would have been even worse had it not been for a break of several months due to Covid-19, during which time Kane was able to recover. This time it was a ruptured high muscle, not the ankle, but the results were the same.
While Kane had as many goals -24- as he did the previous season in fewer matches -34- he actually played more minutes per match and his efficiency fell to a goal or assist every 117 minutes. Further Spurs struggled without Kane as Heung-Min Son went down for a while too and Spurs went 5-5-7 in those 17 matches Harry Kane missed and ended up missing out on Top Four.
Terrible Timing for Kane and Tottenham
Clearly the real question is how long is Harry Kane going to be out for. If Kane is only out for a week or so, odds are it will have little impact on just how well he has been performing. With 19 goals and 14 assists in 2191 minutes in all competitions Kane is averaging a mind-blowing goal or assist every 66 minutes, a new career best.
So what does all this mean for Harry Kane and Tottenham now?
A rate that is even more productive than he was in 2016-17 seems almost impossible, yet that has been Harry Kane this season. Even more impressively while his total matches and minutes are high, his minutes per appearance are actually the lowest they have been since 2014-15 when Kane was averaging 72 minutes per match versus the 75 per match this season. Last season in 34 appearances Kane averaged 89 minutes per appearance.
It is these two factors, the idea that Kane has been incredibly efficient this season and that he has actually played many fewer minutes that makes the injury all the more problematic for Tottenham. At this point so much of what Tottenham does has Kane involved his absence – if extended – could be a major negative for Tottenham. This is where history for Tottenham and Kane is not good.
Unfortunately for Tottenham, if history tells us anything, it is that Kane will be out for an extended period, negatively impacting both the team and his production upon return. With a lot of games in the weeks and months ahead, a long-term injury to Kane is a worst case scenario for Tottenham, so we all need to hope the swelling subsides and Kane is back in action next Thursday against Chelsea. Because if Kane is not back quick, it could be a while and that is bad news for Tottenham.