The Tottenham Hotspur approach under José Mourinho this season has some pundits believing Spurs are for real, for others not so much; what do analytics think?
Over the last decade the idea of advanced analytics has crept into all part of life, including sport. Fivethirtyeight.com – most well known for predicting elections – has an entire department dedicated to predicting sports, including football. With analytics as the lens and Tottenham as the focus we peek at if the numbers think Tottenham can win a trophy this season.
Football Analytics
Fivethirtyeight.com uses the Soccer Power Index (SPI) which has been used in some form to predict football since Nate Silver himself developed the algorithm in 2009 for ESPN. The actual formula used to determine the SPI for each team takes three other formulas into account; adjusted goals, shot-based expected goals, and non-shot based expected goals.
Scoring Teams – Soccer Power Index (SPI)
Adjusted goals is a complex formula designed to bring all teams back to their mean and actual performance over the course of a season. Shot-based expected goals is a prediction of the number of goals a team should score based on the number of shots taken, from where, and by whom. In many respects whether a team does or does not outperform their shot-based expected goals will determine success, but you need the prediction to outperform.
The third measure non-shot based expected goals is a fancy term for weighing possession and ball recovery. The more passes a team completes closer to the other team’s goal, the more likely they are – in theory – to score. The more a team regains possession in the other team’s half, the more likely they are to score – in theory. So, passes and ball recoveries, among other things, particularly in areas of the pitch closer to the goal produce a higher score in this area.
To overly simplify the measures, one is based on how much you really score, one is based on how much and how well you shoot, and the third measure really is a measure of possession. Clearly teams like Manchester City and Liverpool have strong scores thanks to that third measure; but then again, they are good teams.
Ranking Teams – Competition-by-competition
Fivethirtyeight.com is known for taking things to the nth degree and the fact that they score, and rank 637 football clubs globally is insane. That said, it is cool, as I can see the odds for my local Phoenix Rising USL team, LASK from the Autrian Bundesliga, and Atletico Madrid of La Liga all in one place. I mention those three, because they are all currently predicted to finish second in their respective leagues.
There are even predictions for the Women’s Super League, where the Tottenham Hotpsur Women currently sit midtable 8th but only have a 1% chance of being relegated. That is less than the likelihood of Arsenal’s men – who fivethiryeight.com currently have at a 3% chance of being relegated.
While the leagues are all predicted, so too is Europa League and the Champions League. However, the FA Cup and Carabao Cup do not receive a prediction. With the Europa League, Premier League, and Tottenham in mind, what do the analytics think of our Spurs?
Premier League Rankings
Despite a slow start to the season, the analytics cannot seem to get over Manchester City in the Premier League predictions. Analytics have Manchester City far and away still the winners of the league predicting 80 points. So sure, are the numbers of City, they are still a 46% chance to win the entire league and at 92% are nearly a lock for Champions League next season.
Currently the analytics have Liverpool finishing second on 77 points as the only other team – besides City – to accumulate more than 70 points on the year. Likewise, Liverpool are good bets – at 83% – to make the Champions League again. The odds Liverpool win the title, however, are quite diminished compared to City at 29%.
For those doing some simple math at home, the analytics say there is a 75% chance that either Manchester City or Liverpool win the Premier League. That sure does not leave much for anyone else. Manchester United and Chelsea are predicted to finish third and fourth both on 68 points. Both also have a better than 50% chance of making the Champions League at 51 and 52 percent each and are both 7% to win the Premier League.
Finally, when we get to the fifth-place team in the Premier League the computer pops out Tottenham Hotspur. Spurs are predicted to finish 5th on 67 points and have just under a 1 in 2 chance of making the Champions League at 49%. Add in a 6% chance to win the League and the computer has pretty much given us all it will.
Leicester City is the only other team to register a full percent chance of winning the League right at 1%. That is six teams accounting for 97% of the chance of winning the league, which does not leave much for the other 14 teams.
If you are again curious about Arsenal, all is not lost as they have a greater chance of making top 4 – 4% than being relegated 3%, so Gunner fans should be fine. The most interesting part of the computer rankings is how much it loves Manchester United, who they have finishing above Chelsea and Tottenham despite predicting a far inferior goal difference, I guess some things never change, even with computers.
Tottenham in Europa League
Now that the draw for the Round of 32 has concluded the predictions have changed in Europa League. Tottenham went from the second most likely team to win the tournament – behind Manchester United – to the number 1 most likely.
Given Manchester United must face Real Sociedad in the Round of 32, the odds of advancing have been diminished, however, if United get past the Spaniards, expect them to reclaim the top percentage chance of winning the competition.
Currently, Tottenham have the best odds at each stage of the competition, with the highest odds to advanced to the next round and the one thereafter. Spurs along with Leverkusen both currently sit top with a 10% chance of wining the Europa League. Further the computer thinks Tottenham have nearly a 1 in 5 chance – 19% – of making the Final in Gdansk, Poland. Do not go buy plane tickets just yet, but still makes you feel good about the team.
Analytics the Answer?
Of course, percentages and analytics do not guarantee anything, but they do tell us that Spurs are currently passing a different kind of smell test. While the eyes and the preferences of fans can lead one to believe Tottenham are or are not for real, numbers usually do not lie.
With more than a third of the season gone, the numbers have a big enough sample size to be meaningful. So, what does this all mean? Well Spurs have a chance, which is something we already knew, but now the numbers know it too!