Tottenham Hotspur host Arsenal FC today in the 126th meeting between the two historic north London rivals, so what can we expect from the latest edition of the derby?
Tottenham Hotspur seemingly have the advantage over Arsenal coming into the 126th north London derby, with the better record and form. However, as a derby between two bitter rivals, form and placement in the table mean extraordinarily little. What are the details heading into the latest showdown between two bitter rivals and what can we expect?
Historic Imbalance Irrelevant
Historically speaking, Arsenal have had the better of the match-up between the two north London neighbors. However, over the last several seasons Tottenham have gained the upper hand in the standings and at times on the pitch. Spurs are unbeaten in 4 against the Gunners, last losing in December 2018, 4-2 in League at the Emirates.
Since that loss, Spurs have won two and drawn two against Arsenal in all competitions. However, this recent success belies the fact that historically Tottenham have struggled against Gunners at times. Of all current Premier League teams Tottenham win less against only Manchester United, Chelsea, and Liverpool than against Arsenal who Spurs beat at just 27.2% of the time.
While Tottenham have historically gotten the short end of the stick things have been changing more of late. The teams have met 12 times in all competitions since the start of the 2015-16 season, with Arsenal winning three, Tottenham winning four, and the teams drawing five times.
As proof of the change, coming into the match-up today the two leading active scorers in the fixture are Harry Kane – who has 10 goals against Arsenal – and Gareth Bale – who has five goals against Arsenal. What makes that interesting is that Bale has not faced Arsenal in over 7 years and not one Gunner has managed even five goals total against Spurs in that time.
The José Mourinho Factor
The recent change in results between the two is further tilted toward Tottenham by the addition of José Mourinho into the equation. José Mourinho has his own little rivalry with Arsenal, facing the Gunners on 21 occasions across his coaching career, mostly as coach of Chelsea in another derby.
Mourinho has dominated Arsenal in a way few other coaches can claim. In 21 matches against the Gunners, José Mourinho has only lost twice. Yes, Arsenal now have Mikel Arteta coaching – who comes from the Pep Guardiola lineage – but Mourinho has already bested Arteta once – last season – and Guardiola himself just a fortnight ago.
The point here is that like everything else in this match-up the historical imbalance is irrelevant, particularly given Tottenham have both the best player – Harry Kane – and best coach – José Mourinho – in the stadium.
From and Standings Coming In
From a form and standings perspective these two teams enter this match-up a chasm apart. Arsenal started the weekend 14th and come into the match-up 15th on just 13 points from 10 games. Further the Gunners have really struggled to score, netting only 10 times all season. For comparison Son Heung-Min leads the league with 10 goals himself for Spurs.
While they have struggled to score, Arsenal has been sound defensively surrendering only 12 goals, just 3 more than Spurs across 10 games. Alternatively, Tottenham have been scoring for fun. It is not just Son, but Harry Kane (7 goals) as well as Spurs have 21 goals in League this season, against only 9 goals against – the lowest goals against total in the League.
Alexander Lacazette leads Arsenal with three goals in League, while Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has two. That said, both have historically had their moments against Tottenham, possessing tremendous pace and timing so they cannot be overlooked.
Arsenal have shown in Europe they are quite capable of scoring where they have 16 goals and have not lost in 5 matches. While winless in their last three in the Premier League, the Gunners last win was at Old Trafford, where they took down Manchester United 1-0. The point is, Arsenal can get up for big games and Tottenham is as big of a game as the Gunner get, especially if they are not going to be in the title conversation.
What Will Decide Tottenham Arsenal?
If history does not matter and form does not matter what will decide the game today? Tactics.
The tactics should be an interesting one to watch as Arteta continues to try to Pep up his Gunner side. Under Arteta Arsenal are more of a possession-based team who is looking to break down opponents rather than counter. This seems counter intuitive to a team that relies heavily on pace and speed.
Interestingly, Arsenal have had their greatest success this season with a three man or even five-man back line with is more a José Mourinho tactic than Pep Guardiola. Further, as the road team knowing Spurs want to get over the top and hit on the break, do not be surprised if Arsenal play a bit deeper and see most of the possession in the back like Spurs teams of old.
Tottenham is going to employ their own bend but do not break defense. Arsenal has more pace up front than Spurs do in the back, so Tottenham will keep their line rather deep as well. This means the middle of the pitch is where the game is going to be won and lost. This is where having a couple of workhorses like Pierre Højbjerg and Moussa Sissoko along with the increasingly active Tanguy Ndombele give Spurs the edge.
This midfield strength, along with Kane dropping more and more into a #10 role to pull the defense should give Spurs the edge in numbers and talent across the middle third of the pitch. If Tottenham can dominate in the middle with Højbjerg and Sissoko covering the gaps and channels, eventually the Arsenal defense will make mistakes and grant Spurs possession.
It is the team that makes less mistakes with the ball and then pounces faster on those mistakes that will win. While a similar overall set-up to the last couple more defensive contests for Spurs, as the Tottenham dominance on the pitch becomes clear, expect to see Tottenham on the ball more than in the last few weeks and finding the holes in Arsenal’s defense.
As the Tottenham midfield dominates, Spurs find ways through and the Gunners will begin to question themselves. Ultimately, this day will end as many have this season for both teams, with Spurs celebrating and Arsenal asking questions as Tottenham roll 3-0.